719
FXUS63 KFGF 161127
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
527 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for hazardous weather is low through next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow is in place over the Northern Plains/Upper Mid west,
while the general pattern across the CONUS is becoming dominated by
split-flow. This will continue to be the case through the middle of
the week as a cutoff low moves northeast and eventually across the
Plains. By late next week/weekend ensembles show the large scale
pattern becoming highly zonal with very flat/westerly flow across
the Northern Plains. Temperatures remain above climatological
averages through next weekend (in the upper 30s to 40s for
highs, potential for a few locations near 50). Climate averages
for highs this time of year rapidly drop from the mid 30s
(today) to near freezing for over the 7 day period for
reference.

Latest ensembles including the later part of the 00Z HREF have all
clustered towards the closed low tracking over SD and southern MN
Monday into Tuesday, with the northern fringe bringing light rain
chances along and south of I-94 Monday night. The northern stream
will be well north cutting off colder air aloft, and as this feature
is pulling warmer/moist air north with it. Temperature profiles
where they are saturated will support predominately liquid with no
ice aloft. Profiles may briefly support a snow mix or even a few ice
pellets, but what reaches the surface is unlikely to accumulation to
the warm nature of BL wetbulb temperatures (above freezing). HREF/NBM
p-type probs all show rain, with no ice accumulation in our south.
Even the probability for at least 0.1" of snowfall has now dropped to
15% or less which would not support accumulations. QPF amounts are
light, with the probability for greater than 0.25" less than 20%. The
overwhelming ensemble consensus is towards no winter impacts with
this system, and with that trend messaging is being adjusted
accordingly. We remain in split-flow through Thursday stuck in the
gap between storm tracks, with highly variable signals for any
additional precipitation. While additional weaker impulses may pass
through the region, these too are favored to remain rain or just
very light rain/snow mix (based on timing), and NBM and other
ensemble systems do no support winter impacts at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
across eastern ND and northwest MN. Surface high pressure
building east will result in light westerly winds becoming
variable and possibly calm by late afternoon and this evening.
Low pressure building south of the region will eventually bring
increasing gradient Monday morning, and late in the TAF period
winds will begin to shift to the east-southeast increasing to
the 6-10kt range (highest towards central ND).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR