187
FXUS63 KFGF 021956
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
256 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening over the Devils Lake Basin into the
  northern Red River Valley. Weaker showers and thunderstorms
  could get as far east as the Red River later tonight.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Wednesday afternoon and evening over the central and southern
  Red River Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly flow aloft with weak embedded shortwaves moving
through the Northern Plains will continue through tonight and
tomorrow, with the upper low moving every slowly across southern
Canada. South to southeasterly winds will continue through
tonight, then the surface trough axis will push into the CWA by
tomorrow night. The rest of this afternoon and evening looks to
remain active, with another round tomorrow. The upper system
finally starts to pull eastward on Thursday. A weak shortwave on
Friday, but then upper ridging builds into the Plains and
Midwest over the weekend. Warmer than average temperatures
should return. Southwesterly flow aloft again for the first part
of next week, so warm temperatures will continue and chances for
a more active convective pattern increase. Devil is in the
details.

...Severe potential in northeastern ND tonight...

Southeasterly winds have brought dew points into the low 60s
across many locations in eastern ND, and with mostly sunny skies
temperatures have climbed into the 80s. A fair amount of cumulus
extending from the James River Valley up into the Devils Lake
Basin. SPC mesoanalysis page has 2500 J/kg of ML CAPE, and even
higher surface based values. Deep layer bulk shear is pretty
weak south of Highway 2, but around 35 to 40 kts was enough to
get a few isolated supercells going that have been moving off
into Canada. The main trough axis and cold front are still well
to our west, with some modest convection so far. Many of the
CAMs have convective intensity in that area increasing in the
next few hours, which fits the front moving into the region of
high instability. The storms out west should become linear as
they move into our western counties later this evening. Damaging
winds and hail will be the main threat, but will have to watch
the 0-3km shear in case the line become perpendicular to the
shear vector and get a brief tornado spin-up. Heavy rain could
be an issue as we head into tonight and early tomorrow, as there
will be some training as the upper flow lines up nearly parallel
to the surface boundary. With 1.2 inches of PWATs, backbuilding
storms could become a problem even with our recent fairly dry
conditions.

...Severe potential on Wednesday...

Weakening showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing tomorrow
morning near the Red River, so that may have a bit of an impact
on how things develop tomorrow afternoon. Some ensemble members
have CAPE approaching 2000 J/kg in southeastern ND, and deep
layer bulk shear should be a bit better further south than today
with 30-40 kts. CIPS and machine learning both have some 15
percent probabilities of severe impacts. HREF probabilities for
updraft helicity tracks have a bullseye over SD, but over 70
percent chance for 4 hour max UH tracks nosing into Ransom and
Sargent counties. Main threat will be in southeastern ND into
the southern and central RRV south of Highway 2. Large hail over
2 inches will be possible, but can`t rule out a tornado spin up
or some damaging wind.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions currently and for the next several hours, as
convection has already started to develop between KDVL and KGFK.
Cells are pretty isolated so far and not expected to impact the
airports yet. Additional showers and thunderstorms will move
into the KDVL area later this evening and possibly KGFK by late
evening to the early morning hours. Less certain how far south
and east to go as the convection weakens, but have some prob30
for showers at KFAR and KTVF late tonight into tomorrow morning.
Some of the models bring in some MVFR ceilings behind the
convection, but only certain enough for KDVL to include in the
TAFs at this point. Winds may be impacted by convection, turning
to the west or even northwest for a time in northeastern ND, but
will return to southeasterly. Gusts should remain below 25 kts
except near thunderstorms.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR