383
FXUS63 KFGF 241203
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
703 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers will slowly come to an end this morning, with
  moderate totals greater than 0.25" likely.

- Additional light wetting rain is expected Friday night
  through Saturday night, and there is the potential for a
  widespread soaking rain with a system early next week. These
  rain events may impact outdoor activities and harvest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...Synopsis...

South to southwest H5 flow prevails today, with surface winds out of
the south to southeast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected overnight as a shortwave moves along the flow pattern. Most
areas should see wetting rains, with the heavier amounts being in
west central Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. Heading into
Thursday, H5 flow becomes northwesterly, with surface flow remaining
out of the south to southeast. Weak shortwave ridging will support
slightly warmer high temperatures in the low 70s on Friday. Heading
into Saturday, a trough is expected to traverse southwest flow into
the Northern Plains, bringing another chance for rain into the
region. Ensembles are in reasonably good agreement regarding
additional rain chances late Sunday through Tuesday in association
with a cold front. At this time, this system carries the potential
for much higher rainfall totals over this period, with currently a
25 percent chance for 1 inch or more rain across much of eastern
North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to push through the region
early this morning. Heavier bursts of rain have brought
occasional IFR visibilities. Recent radar trends show a general
weakening of thunderstorm activity, with lightning really
diminishing over the last 90 minutes. For these reasons, the
latest set of TAFs removes all mention of TSRA.

Throughout today, a mixture of MVFR to IFR (likely more IFR vs
MVFR) ceilings will persist. This is especially true for
locations in and east of the Red River Valley. At KDVL, cloud
cover should SCT out during the afternoon, resulting in a few
hours of VFR. However, fog is anticipated to develop Thursday
evening at most terminals. Therefore, have introduced LIFR into
this set of TAFs for a period of Thursday night into early
Friday morning. Even where fog does not form, low stratus with
IFR/LIFR ceilings will likely remain in place.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Rafferty