607
FXUS63 KFGF 052129
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
429 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for thunderstorms exist over the holiday
  weekend, with a level 1 out of 5 chance each day. The main
  impacts for any storms that become severe will be ping pong
  ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging continues to build over the Eastern Plains, with
several weak shortwaves evident on water vapor. A couple such
shortwaves have been producing showers and storms over northwestern
MN and along the north central ND/Manitoba border.
The next more significant shortwave is still down over WY and will
move into the Northern Plains tonight into tomorrow morning. The
upper ridge will begin to shift slightly east Sunday night, leaving
the region in southwesterly flow aloft into Labor Day. A broad
trough/upper low will move through south central Canada on Tuesday,
leaving the Northern Plains in slightly northwesterly to near zonal
flow aloft through the rest of the work week and into next Saturday.

...Marginal severe chances tonight, tomorrow and Monday...

Some MU CAPE still around, but SPC mesoanalysis page has a lot of
CIN with the mixed layer CAPE. Most of the CAMs don`t have much over
eastern ND until later tonight when the shortwave over WY comes
northeast, but given recent poor performance do not have much trust
in their solutions. There will be plenty of MU CAPE again overnight,
although bulk shear will be fairly modest around 30 kts. Some
convection could be ongoing tomorrow morning, with HREF showing a
low probability of strong updraft helicity tracks in west central
MN. Another shortwave coming through could bring more thunderstorm
activity Sunday afternoon and evening, although much will depend on
how the morning activity plays out and if the atmosphere recovers.
Better shear looks to be in store for Monday, although instability
is more uncertain. At this point, can`t rule out an isolated
instance of hail up to ping pong balls or 60 mph winds through the
rest of the holiday weekend, but confidence in exactly when and
where is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Thunderstorms exiting the KGFK area and moving into KTVF. KDVL
has some lingering showers and could see some additional
activity later this afternoon. Storms also seem on track towards
KBJI, so have VCTS mention there but will stay north of KFAR.
Model performance has been poor and not certain enough for any
showers and thunderstorms impacting the TAF sites after 00Z to
include at this point. VFR conditions as the convection moves
away from the forecast area. Some of the models have some low
stratus or fog going into the KBJI area later tonight, but
probabilities currently only 20 percent so will keep VFR for
now. Winds will be east to southeasterly, with gusts to 20 kts
possible near thunderstorms today and in the afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR