447
FXUS63 KFGF 071221
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
721 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for heat-related impacts Sunday, with additional
  heat impacts Tuesday.

- There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Sunday evening and overnight. Damaging wind gusts will be the
  primary hazard, with lesser chances for hail and tornadoes.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  along and south of the International Border Monday evening
  through early Tuesday morning.

- Additional thunderstorm chances next week, with the potential
  for severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Changes done to the forecast this early morning was to go with a
wind advisory for western fcst area from Valley City to Langdon
to match up with WFO BIS. It is a marginal advisory for sure,
but some wind gusts may approach 45 mph this afternoon. Evening
shift coord with DLH and DLH went SPS for near critical fire wx
their far north and I did as well as similar conditions present,
though RH values 30-35 pct. Suspect this may be the last SPS for
a while as we do enter a higher dew pt pattern and late week
cool down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...Synopsis...

A warm and active pattern prevails through the next week, with high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s today and Sunday. Thunderstorm
chances are in the forecast Sunday evening and overnight, with strong
to severe storms possible across the Devils Lake Basin extending
back to the south and west. Unsettled weather continues into
Monday with a chance for isolated severe storms along and just
south of the International Border. Further strong to severe
storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front
pushes through the area for Thursday. Cooler temperatures return
late next week.

...Potential Heat-Related Impacts Sunday...

Temperatures climb into the 90s across much of the area Sunday
afternoon, with heat index values in the mid 90s. Looking at dew
points, low to mid 60s are expected outside of the Red River Valley;
however, mid to upper 60 degree dew points prevail within the
Valley. At this time, the main uncertainty resides in how much cloud
cover impacts temperatures, especially in the southern Red River
Valley. Wet bulb globe values will widely climb into the upper
70s and low 80s. This would signify that individuals should
use discretion if doing strenuous outdoor activities tomorrow, take
frequent breaks, and drink plenty of water.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Sunday through Tuesday...

Sunday Evening: Thunderstorms are expected to form in western and
central North Dakota Sunday afternoon and early evening. These
storms will travel east as the evening progresses, approaching
eastern North Dakota during the mid to late evening. At this time,
the most likely mode will favor linear and/or line segments in
eastern North Dakota, but will be downstream of antecedent
supercells that undergo upscale development. Very strong low and mid
level lapse rates will drive initiation ahead of a cold front, with
CAPE values ranging anywhere from 2000 J/Kg to 3000 J/Kg.
Environmental support runs out rather quickly as storms approach the
Red River Valley, thus confidence in the eastern extent of strong
storms looks minimal at this time.

Monday Night: Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday evening
and persist into the overnight hours. The primary hazard will be
large hail and a lower risk for damaging wind gusts. These storms
will be driven by strong mid level lapse rates as well as 0-6 km
shear upwards of 45-50 knots.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Moisture advection remains strong heading
into Tuesday as low level flow increases out of the south. SBCAPE in
model soundings ranges from 3000 J/Kg to 4000 J/Kg, with low to mid
level shear ranging from 20 to 30 knots. Will need to watch this
very closely in the coming days as the pattern continues to support
additional severe thunderstorm potential on Wednesday. At this
time, model soundings support supercell storm mode both days,
with all hazards possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 710 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR sky conditions today. Gusty southeast winds though in the
RRV and eastern ND with gusts at times to 28-35 kts anticipated
at GFK, FAR, DVL region late morning and afternoon. Chance for
t-storms increases tonight, but not until after 03z in DVL. Risk
of storms after 06z may spread east into the RRV but also in a
diminishing mode.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle