648
FXUS63 KFGF 281851
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
151 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers today mainly southeast ND into
  northwest/west central MN.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible Wadena-Fergus Falls-Elbow Lake
  area early to mid afternoon. Moderate chance of a strong
  storm.

- Temperatures this weekend into early next week will be around
  10 degrees above normal for highs.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Dense fog has since diminished, although areas of fog still
linger within portions of Red River Valley into Minnesota. At
times fog may become dense in portions of lakes country in
west-central MN.

Also in west-central MN will be scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. The chance for severe storms
remains very low, although couldn`t rule out small, sub-severe
hail.

UPDATE
Issued at 714 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Thru the night, updated SPS for patchy dense fog that does
persist from Cooperstown to Lisbon/Gwinner and into parts of
Cass county ND. Webcams show continued patchy/area fog coverage
and thus SPS was issued and not advisory. This was done after
coordination with BIS/ABR on fog. Seems as if earlier model data
used for the grids from 00z were too wet this morning with
shower chances as composite radar shows limited activity. barely
worth of a 20 pop in the area from north of Bemidji to Hillsboro
to Valley City where higher chances are. Devils Lake-Grand
Forks-Roseau and north on the edge and precipitation chances are
10-30 percent. 06z SPC update for day 1 had marginal risk for
severe storms skirting southern Wadena county, southeast Otter
Tail, and Grant County MN. Based on instability forecasts do
feel better severe chances is tied more to the slight risk area
from SPC more toward the Twin Cities. Mentioned t-storm chances
in HWO for that part of west central MN near marginal risk and
it is in the forecast grids.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

...Synopsis...

The trough that has brought precipitation to the region
overnight into this morning (and a few lingering pockets of
drizzle in north central MN) is transitioning to the north,
while the next shortwave trough that will bring rain chances
Wednesday is centered over Oregon upstream. After the next wave
passes Wednesday a large upper low and persistent trough pattern
is shown to remain entrenched upstream over the Pacific
Northwest, with a general SW flow pattern across the central
Rockies towards the Northern Plains. Our immediate region will
tend to be under broader ridging within this split-southwest
flow pattern initially keeping more active tracks and rain
chances out of the region. However as the more active SW flow
pattern builds east towards the weekend there are general rain
chances which increase as the larger upper low/trough finally
moves east of the Rockies into early next week. Current
consensus keeps this to the south, however there is still a
broad precipitation signal with this pattern change. Due to
above average air mass remain in place there continues to be a
signal/trend towards only rain.

...Rain on Wednesday...

The shortwave trough over Oregon quickly progresses across
Rockies and into the Northern Plains overnight tonight into
Wednesday morning and increasing forcing for ascent, moisture
return, and some instability should support increasing rain
coverage particularly in MN head of an associated frontal zone.
There may be enough instability for some thunderstorm activity
across west central MN which could contribute to localized
higher rain totals. Strong/severe storms are not anticipated
this far north with any potential for higher instability farther
south. General totals will be lighter for most areas with probs
for 0.1" and 0.25" high east of the RRV but probability in
NBM/HREF for 0.5" lower (20-30% in our far east) and likely
dependent on convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Impacts to aviation mainly stem from lowered ceilings and
reduced visibility. Overall, these impacts have remained in the
MVFR to LIFR range. This will continue for sites like KGFK,
KFAR, KTVF, and KBJI this afternoon into early evening, with
VFR conditions spreading west to east during this time as well.

There is a medium to high chance additional lower ceilings
after 06Z will impact sites like KTVF and KBJI. Chance was high
enough to include in these TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
forecast.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...CJ