097
FXUS63 KFGF 192027
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
327 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
  evening. Hail up to 2 inches and wind gusts to 75 mph would
  be the primary threats.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected through
  early evening over forested areas in north central MN. Near
  critical to critical fire weather conditions may develop in
  these areas again Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...Synopsis...

An upper low is centered near west central Saskatchewan and a
southwest orientated upper level jet max over Montana is building
towards northwest ND and southern Saskatchewan/southwest
Manitoba. A frontal zone is in place over western ND and the
combination of these features will bring increased chance for
thunderstorms to our region this evening into the overnight,
though coverage/evolution continues to vary. Ahead of this
system south-southwest flow and increased heights due to the
mean ridge axis overhead, temperatures have once again increase
to around (or higher than) 90F. Tds are much more variable
though and while a few spots in northeast ND may see near
advisory conditions, widespread Heat Advisory conditions are not
anticipated. It is still uncomfortable with 90-97F Heat Index
values through sunset, and Wet Bulb Globe temperatures around
80F (increased heat stress for those active in the direct sun).

The mid/upper low transitions east through Monday and a strong cold
front eventually pushes through our CWA with increasing winds
(potential for a few gusts to 45 mph in eastern ND) and falling
temperatures (seasonably mild/slightly below average Tuesday).
Unfortunately, this break in temperatures is short lived as the
large scale ridge restrengthens with rising heights and increasing
temperatures once again through the end of the week and weekend
(increased potential for heat impacts once again).

...Severe Risk This Evening and Overnight...

Strong capping is in place over our CWA, along with general
subsidence due to the ridge axis centered over our CWA. There has
been just enough elevated instability and forcing from WAA aloft to
support isolated weak showers/storms through the early afternoon,
however this activity has struggled to hold together as has
generally fallen apart. Initiation of deeper/organized convection
should mainly be tied to the increased convergence near the frontal
zone in western ND and with increasing synoptic ascent/height falls
later this evening and HRRR/REFS have both trended towards that
timing (initiation generally 23-01Z and spreading into our CWA
afterwards (00-03Z period). Steep mid level lapse rates and good
instability (2000-3500 J/KG), and increasing shear (effective shear
30-50kt, 0-3km shear 30-40kt) with fairly straight hodographs
initially support supercells with large hail (2"+) and some
potential for stronger downburst winds in high DCAPE environment
(1500-2000 J/KG).

As the activity spreads east towards our CWA there should be a trend
towards clustering or even organized MCS development and this
transition may occur before reaching our CWA or within our CWA. The
track/evolution has continued to vary wildly between CAMs which
reflect scenarios including one or several smaller clusters splitting
around or through parts of our CWA with coverage limited, or larger
more organized MCS through the evening/early overnight. Trend
should be for a transition to primarily a wind threat with at least
some potential for localized sig wind gusts (75+ mph), though wider
spread wind impacts with complexes may remain in the 58-75 mph range
without more organized linear convection. Due to the higher bases
confidence is lower in tornado potential though QLCS type features
would certainly be possible in this environment (may be more
indicative of localized surges of higher winds).

...Fire Weather...

The primary areas of concern have been for forested areas of north
central MN (Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Hubbard Counties) where
drier fuels have increased vigilance from fire partners. There are
indications that the continued dry weather is beginning to cure
grasslands areas of ND and we`ll be monitoring southeast ND in
particular for the potential for fuels to become critical if rains do
not alleviate conditions over the next 24hr.

Due to higher Td values in our area RH values have remain 38-45%
despite higher temperatures this afternoon. Those RH values,
combined with breezy conditions in place (gusts to 20 mph) and dry
fuels have still resulted in near critical fire weather conditions in
the areas of concern in north central MN. RH values will tend to be
much more variable in the post frontal air mass Monday, especially
with increasing cloud cover in the north, resulting in a large spread
in potential RH values north to south (60% North to 35% south). It
will be much windier Monday with west then northwest gusts 35 to 40
mph (highest in the Red River Valley and eastern ND). Due to the dry
fuels and winds, near critical fire weather conditions are still
anticipated for the areas of concern in MN.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be much milder, however Tds will be
lower as well, and RH values of 35 to 45% are expected across the
region (lowest towards central/southeast ND). Winds may not be as
high as on Monday, however gust 25 to 30 mph could be expected in
areas of concern in MN and we`ll be monitoring for near critical to
critical fire weather conditions day.

Due to the building ridge/increasing temperatures, without new
rainfall alleviating fuels concerns we may continue to see near
critical to critical fire weather conditions continue into next
weekend and the areas of impact may begin to extend into parts of
the Red River Valley and eastern ND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through this afternoon across
eastern ND and northwest MN, with gusty south-southwest winds
(periodic gusts to 25kt in eastern ND). Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are moving over parts of eastern ND but the
probability for impacts this afternoon is low.

This evening scattered thunderstorms develop and there is the
potential for larger thunderstorm complexes to move west to east
or southeast through the region. There is still a lot of
variability on the track and locations that could see the
highest coverage this evening into the early overnight, but
where activity tracks severe thunderstorms (hail/wind) and
MVFR/IFR conditions would be a threat. After that activity
passes additional smoke may move into the region Monday (impacts
more likely aloft and off the surface) and westerly winds
should increase late morning. Gusts around 30kt or higher are
likely by midday Monday in eastern ND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR