165
FXUS63 KFGF 030537
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain continues today through early Wednesday.
  Highest rainfall amounts range from 1-3 inches, with the
  highest values in west central Minnesota.

- Breezy north winds are expected Tuesday, with sustained values
  of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. Highest winds will be in
  the Red River Valley and adjacent locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper low continues to move northeast this afternoon and
evening, with widespread rain observed across much of eastern
North Dakota, west central Minnesota, and northwest Minnesota.
Winds have started to shift to the northeast, and will continue
to become more northerly through the evening hours and
overnight. The upper low slowly exits the area late Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, with breezy north winds expected through
much of Tuesday. Much cooler air pours into the Northern Plains,
with temperatures close to average values Tuesday through
Friday. Our next chance for precipitation will be late Saturday
into Sunday as a fast moving trough moves across the area.

...Heavy Rain Through Wednesday...

Moderate to heavy rain will continue through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening across much of eastern North Dakota,
northwest Minnesota, and west central Minnesota. An upper low is
slowly moving to the northeast, but is expected to occlude and
briefly become cut off from the upper flow as we go through the
day Tuesday. As this happens, there could be a slight westward
shift of the system. This could keep light rain in the forecast
through much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning,
especially east of the Red River Valley. At this time, there is
about a 75 percent chance to see an additional 0.25-0.50 inch in
the central Red River Valley, with higher chances further east.
Some locales could see upwards of 3 inches by Wednesday
morning, with the best chances being in west central Minnesota
(25 percent chance).

...Breezy North Winds Tuesday...

North winds fill into the area as the H5 low moves slowly
eastward. These winds will increase this evening and overnight,
with 15-25 mph sustained winds expected by early Tuesday
morning. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible, especially in the
central and southern Red River Valley. Pressure rises are
expected to be sufficient to favor a few higher gusts; however,
with 700-850mb winds in the 35-45 knot range, and generally weak
cold air advection, there is minimal support for anything more
than occasional advisory level gusts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions persisting through the morning with DVL
likely to clear out in the evening. All other sites look to
remain IFR through the period with periods of LIFR. Winds are
solidly NNW tonight with speeds of 15-20kts and gusts around
30kts. 30kt gusts look to persist through the morning and into
the afternoon before the pressure gradient weakens and winds
begin to calm into the night. Rain will be on and off at most
sites through the period as well but visibility improving by 12z
for the sites that remain below 6SM tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT