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NDC005-027-071-281200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1254 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          Devils and Stump Lakes
                    Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

  The National Weather Service provides long-range probabilistic
   hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
    and September. They will not be provided between October and
     December. Depending on the season, the high or low water
      probabilities may be omitted due to their applicability to
       the hydrologic situation.

.OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

Note: This outlook incorporates a daily average of 350 cfs worth of
pumping operations on Devils Lake from May 15th through October 30th.

Heavy rain across the basin over the September 10-12 time period has
allowed lake levels to rise a bit this fall. Although pumping
operations are likely ceased for the season, this outlook continues
to incorporate a daily average of 350 cfs through October 30th.
Therefore, the lake levels in this outlook may be a bit lower than
what occurs due to pumping no longer occurring. Ultimately, any
additional decline in lake levels this fall will be highly dependent
on future precipitation.

Climate outlooks indicate above normal temperatures to continue
through the end of September and into early October. By mid-October,
there is no strong signal either way for above, below, or near normal
temperatures and precipitation through the remainder of the fall
season and into winter.

This will be the last lake level outlook for 2025. Exceedance numbers
will resume in January 2026.


.Current and Previous Record High Lake Levels...

 *  The current height of Devils Lake is 1448.7 feet NGVD29.
 *  The current height of  Stump Lake is 1448.7 feet NGVD29.

 *  USGS daily average height records for Devils Lake at the Creel
    Bay gage:
                ...1454.30 feet on June 27, 2011
                ...1452.05 feet on June 27, 2010
                ...1450.93 feet on June 27, 2009
                ...1449.20 feet on May 9, 2006
                ...1449.18 feet on June 17, 2004
                ...1449.17 feet on August 2, 2005
    Note: All previous records are recorded in NGVD29.


.Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes Falling Below Given Lake Levels...

  The probability of not exceeding a given lake level is the
   percentage of lake level falls that are below that level for
    all the years (1949-2019) that were run through the model using
     the precipitation and temperatures for those years during the
      valid period of the outlook.

  Interpretation Aid: There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
   Lake will fall below 48.2 feet during the valid period and
    a 5 percent chance that it will fall below 48.1 feet.

           Probabilities for Falling Below Listed Lake Levels

             FROM SEPTEMBER 22, 2025 TO DECEMBER 28, 2025

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Devils Lake.....
  CREEL BAY           48.6   48.5   48.3   48.2   48.1   48.1   48.1
Stump Lake.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE     48.6   48.5   48.3   48.2   48.1   48.1   48.1

  The non-exceedance value for a listed percentage is the value
    where that percentage of all model cases run were below that
      lake level for the specified valid period of the outlook.

.OUTLOOK SCHEDULE...

 - Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.

 - Special Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks will be issued
    from mid-February through mid-March.

 - For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances will
    be provided.

 - For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.

 - No probability information will be provided from October through
    December.

.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

These lake level probabilities can be used for risk management as an
 indication of the range of lake levels that may be possible during
 the valid period of the outlook. However, note that it is possible
 that lake levels may still reach above/fall below the 95th and 5th
 percentile values.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the potential lake
 levels for the full outlook period as well as weekly probabilities.
 These graphics, and explanations that help in interpreting them,
 can be found on the NWS Grand Forks NWPS web page by clicking on
 "Rivers and Lakes" above the map at www.weather.gov/fgf.

Wind and wave forecasts for Devils and Stump Lakes are available for
a 7-day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at
www.weather.gov/fgf/lake_info.

If you have any questions, please contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on X at @NWSGrandForks.

$$
      weather.gov/fgf
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