771
FNUS73 KFGF 041802
FWSFGF

Spot Forecast for RL 168...BIA
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
102 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1300 CDT on October 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please call the NWS in Grand Forks at 701-795-5127 for additional
information and monitor our website (www.weather.gov/fgf) or NOAA
All-Hazards Radio for the latest updates.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds are going to tend to vary this afternoon and evening in the
proximity of the wildfire as a frontal zone is stalled nearby and
will tend to shift back and forth. This will result in winds
shifting from the southwest to northeast but could vary off and on
until Sunday when the main cold front pushes through the region
and strong northwest winds arrive. The best chances for rain
showers (lower coverage of thunderstorms) is later this evening
after 10 PM with showers continuing into Sunday. Outside of
isolated/localized higher totals where thunderstorm activity
tracks, most rain totals in the area of the wildfire will tend to
be lighter, with a 50% chance for greater than 0.25" of total
rainfall. The most organized/heavier rains will be in northeast ND
or near the US/Canada border.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    north late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....(35900 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........20     39     62
Weather cov.....              S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC
Temp............80     81     83
RH..............49     46     46
20 ft wind......SW 10  W 10   N 10
20 ft wind gust.18     14     16
Mix hgt (ft)....3600   4300   3000
Mixing wind.....SW 15  SW 15  N 15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..54     48     36

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered
                    showers in the evening becoming numerous after midnight.
                    Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may also develop
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 mph become variable late evening,
                    then shift to the southwest increasing to 15 mph
                    gusting to 25 mph after 3am. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast around 15 mph shifting to the northeast
                    late in the evening, then shifting to the south
                    and southwest after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....16200 knot-ft early in the evening decreasing
                    to 4500 knot-ft late in the night.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75  71  71  72  65  65  67  67  62  71  73  77
Weather cov.....ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO
Temp............79  76  71  69  67  65  64  64  61  64  64  65
RH..............55  58  67  72  77  84  86  84  91  84  84  79
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   NE  NE  S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..10  5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  12  15  15
20 FT wind gust.15  14  14  14  15  18  19  20  20  21  22  23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.2 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7
Mixing wind dir.N   N   NE  E   E   NE  N   N   NE  SE  S   SW
Mixing wind spd.15  15  15  10  15  10  15  10  10  15  15  15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16  15  7   11  5   5   11  10  10  10  9   8

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers through the day. Isolated thunderstorms
                    in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 73. Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 29 mph, with sustained winds increasing
                    to around 20 mph with gusts to around 33 mph
                    late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    northwest with gusts to around 33 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South around 15 mph
                    increasing to around 25 mph early in the
                    morning, then increasing to southwest
                    35 to 40 mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon shifting to the northwest 30 to 35 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....9200 knot-ft early in the morning increasing to
                    79900 knot-ft in the afternoon increasing to
                    (80500 knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81  74  74  61  62  58  65  65  70  75  75  71
Weather cov.....SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO
Temp............66  66  65  67  68  70  70  68  70  64  61  57
RH..............76  77  80  77  72  66  63  60  54  61  66  69
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
20 FT wind gust.23  23  25  27  29  32  32  32  33  33  32  32
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 1.4 2.8 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.0
Mixing wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW
Mixing wind spd.15  15  25  35  40  40  40  35  35  35  35  30
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9   9   29  80  136 142 139 135 122 110 98  81

$$
Forecaster...DJR
Requested by...Cory Berg
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2522968.0/FGF
.DELDT 10/04/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cory.berg@bia.gov