722
FNUS73 KFGF 111342
FWSFGF

Spot Forecast for Bay Lake...USWFS
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
842 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please call the NWS in Grand Forks at 701-795-5127 for additional
information and monitor our website (www.weather.gov/fgf) or NOAA
All-Hazards Radio for the latest updates.

.DISCUSSION...

As temperatures increase today in the area of the spot forecast RH
values will fall below 30%, with a medium chance for values at or
below 25%. WInds gradually increase through the day, but the
strongest winds will be as a front approaches late in the
afternoon and that will be when gusts 25mph or higher become more
frequent, which also correlates with the timing of RH recovery
back towards 30% will occur. This creates a window in the late
afternoon where there is a 30% chance for Red Flag conditions to
occur in western Becker County/eastern Clay County. High based
light showers and a low chance for thunderstorms may also develop
into the region, but chances for impacts in west central MN are
low (20%)


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to around
                    20 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 25 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....15000 knot-ft early in the morning increasing
                    to 83000 knot-ft in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  38  40  41  43  49  55  61  64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............45  50  54  56  59  60  62  63  64
RH..............47  41  35  28  27  26  26  26  27
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20
20 FT wind gust.14  15  18  20  20  22  23  25  26
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.9 2.9 3.6 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.0 3.8
Mixing wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixing wind spd.15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  25
Vrate kt-ft/1K..15  23  38  54  63  71  77  75  83

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph, then shifting to the south and
                    southwest after midnight before shift again
                    to the west northwest by Tuesday morning.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 20 to 25 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 15 mph after 3 am, then shifting to the
                    west after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....64100 knot-ft early in the evening decreasing
                    to 7700 knot-ft late in the night.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........67  76  85  94  77  61  44  43  41  40  38  23
Weather cov.....                    SCH
Weather type....                    RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH
Temp............65  63  62  58  56  54  53  52  51  49  48  48
RH..............26  29  36  42  45  50  57  63  66  74  80  83
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  W
20 FT wind spd..20  20  20  20  20  20  15  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.27  27  28  28  28  27  25  21  19  16  18  22
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6
Mixing wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  W   NW
Mixing wind spd.25  25  25  20  20  25  25  20  20  15  15  15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..64  49  25  17  16  16  15  13  9   8   9   9

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts
                    to around 28 mph increasing to around 25 mph
                    with gusts to around 35 mph in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 20 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 35
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....13400 knot-ft early in the morning increasing
                    to 82800 knot-ft in the afternoon increasing to
                    (121200 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........35  50  45  38  42  48  51  51  56  39  19  17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............48  47  50  52  55  57  59  60  61  63  63  63
RH..............83  86  74  66  57  53  49  46  44  39  39  38
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..15  15  20  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25
20 FT wind gust.23  26  28  32  34  34  35  34  35  35  35  34
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.7 2.6 3.3 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.5 6.3 6.1
Mixing wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixing wind spd.20  25  25  30  35  35  35  35  35  30  35  30
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  34  58  83  121 134 149 151 158 154 196 164

$$
Forecaster...DJR
Requested by...Jason Westholter
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613310.0/FGF
.DELDT 05/11/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jason_westholter@fws.gov