734
FXUS65 KFGZ 171157
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
457 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather continues to be the main story
through much of the forecast period. Expect rain and high
elevation snow beginning tonight through at least Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The low pressure system that brought rain and high
elevation snow showers yesterday (Sunday) is now centered over
northern UT, leaving behind only a few pockets of low cloud cover
for our CWA. Today should be fairly quiet weather-wise, as
Arizona briefly settles under a weak ridge. Even so, daytime highs
will remain on the chilly side with afternoon highs landing 5-10
degrees below normal.

Another low pressure system will begin pushing down from the
Pacific Northwest today, becoming a closed low right along the
California Coast by this afternoon. Once again, this closed low
is trending on the warmer side compared to some of the previous
model runs we saw within the last 24-48 hours. As a result,
temperatures overall are a few degrees warmer and snow levels
don`t appear to be as exciting. That might not be the news you
were hoping to hear, but precipitation is still forecast to roll
through tomorrow night through at least Wednesday night. Snow
levels will start off above 8000`, but by Tuesday evening, we`ll
see a downward trend from western Coconino and Yavapai Counties to
the I-17 corridor, where snow levels look to drop closer to
6500-7000`. Snow amounts across more populated areas do not look
overly impressive, but the greatest potential for snowfall is
forecast overnight Tuesday through much of Wednesday. This could
create a few slick spots across portions of I-40 and the I-17 for
the Wednesday morning commute, so giving yourself a few extra
minutes on the roads would not be a bad idea. With all that being
said, current storm total amounts for locations generally above
7000` look to be around 0.5-2", with more impressive snow
accumulation for areas such as the Kaibab Plateau, San Francisco
Peaks, and the White Mountains.

Winds are also worth mentioning with this closed low pressure
system. Pressure gradients should be the tightest on Tuesday,
where we could see southerly winds gusting near 30 mph, primarily
across the eastern Rim and White Mountains.

Thursday onward...Arizona is forecast to stay under an unsettled
weather pattern, but only time will tell on what the details of
the "unsettled" weather will be.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 17/12Z through Tuesday 18/12Z...CIGS generally
4-6kft AGL through this period, with LCL MVFR/IFR over higher
terrain until 15Z. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA will develop AFT 01Z-03Z
Tuesday, becoming widespread after 06Z mainly west of the I-17
corridor. South to southwest winds 10-20kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/12Z through Thursday 20/12Z...Areas -SHRA/-TSRA
as well as -SHSN/SHSN (above 7500 feet) through much of the
period. Upslope (SW) locations and areas where showers are
occurring will produce MVFR/IFR. Sfc winds light Monday night,
then SW10-20kts Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Mostly dry and cool
conditions will prevail today. Showers will increase from the
southwest this evening, becoming widespread tonight across
Yavapai and Coconino counties. Scattered to widespread rain
showers expected on Tuesday with a chance of high elevation snow
in the evening. Winds 5-15 mph on Monday, becoming south 10-20 mph
on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Scattered to widespread rain/snow showers
will continue on Wednesday generally along and south of the Rim,
becoming more isolated Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff