259
FXUS65 KFGZ 270918
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
218 AM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms continue through Tuesday or Wednesday, before some
drying develops later this week. Temperatures will remain warm, but
right around normal through Wednesday, before rising to well above
normal later this week and next weekend. Daytime temperatures by
next weekend may the warmest so far this year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains centered over New Mexico for
the next few days, before wandering westward later this week and
into next weekend. The position of the high and southeasterly
steering flow has allowed Monsoonal moisture to stay in place and
current PW values have not really shown any appreciable drying
trends, as of yet.

The strength of the ridge peaks today, before actually weakening
ever so slightly Tuesday and Wednesday, then strengthening again as
it moves westward later this week. The brief weakening of the high
may allow some of the weak capping over our area to relax Tuesday
and Wednesday, which may ramp up activity compared to today. As the
high retrogrades later this week, we expect drier air and stronger
capping to develop, which will limit activity, especially north of
the I-40 corridor.

For today, we expect a similar day to Sunday. Thunderstorms will
initiate over the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim and then move
northwest. Outflows may push some activity off the Mogollon Rim and
into eastern Yavapai County later in the afternoon. Western Yavapai
County and the zones NE of the Mogollon Rim will be comparatively
quiet.

As the ridge strengthens later this week, expect temperatures to
rise, especially as cloud cover and rain-cooled air becomes more
scarce. It is likely that temperatures will reach toward the warmest
so far this year by next weekend. But, for now, we will stay free of
headlines as anticipated convective activity should keep the lower
elevations just under criteria for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 27/06Z through Tuesday 28/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. SCT SHRA/TSRA 18Z-03Z, with greatest coverage across
the higher terrain. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty, erratic
winds in stronger storms. Outside of storms, expect westerly winds
5-15 kts, becoming light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 28/06Z through Thursday 30/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. SCT SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z each day, with greatest
coverage across the higher terrain. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and
gusty, erratic winds in stronger storms. Outside of storms, expect
westerly winds 5-15 kts, becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Expect isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon and
early evening hours. Storms will be most common over the higher
terrain of central Arizona. Temperatures will be right around
normal, a bit above normal in locations that do not receive rain.
Winds will remain fairly light, trending southwesterly over higher
terrain.

Wednesday through Friday...An active Monsoon pattern continues for
Wednesday, but will begin to trend downward Thursday and Friday. As
shower and thunderstorm coverage decreases, expect temperatures to
rise above normal, possibly the warmest so far this year by the end
of the week and next weekend. Winds will be generally light and
variable at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff