615
FXUS65 KFGZ 171116
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
416 AM MST Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak short-wave will slightly drop daytime highs and
elevate winds this afternoon. As a result, critical fire weather
conditions are expected, especially across eastern Arizona. Expect
hot temperatures through the forecast period, with additional
windy conditions Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...You probably won`t notice the very slight dip in
temperatures this afternoon, but a weak shortwave will roll
through Arizona, allowing daytime highs to ring in a few degrees
cooler than yesterday. Arguably the more critical component to
this short-wave is the elevated west-southwest winds associated
with this. Between the gusty winds and continued dry conditions,
critical fire weather concerns are forecast for this afternoon,
especially across portions of northeast Arizona. As a result, a
Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon/evening for portions
of the Little Colorado River Valley, the Chuska Mountains,
Defiance Plateau, and the Northeast Plateaus and Mesas south of
HWY 264.

Another strong ridge looks to build behind the exit of the
previously mentioned short-wave. This pattern will allow daytime
highs to once again reach hot to dangerously hot ranges across the
state. Because of the heat concern, the Extreme Heat Warning for
lower elevations of the Grand Canyon is in effect through Friday
evening. Even if you`re not hiking into the Canyon, be sure to
avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day and
drink lots of water! Although high pressure will dominate through
the end of the week, starting as early as Thursday, this ridge
will slowly shift eastward. The movement of this high pressure
system will be due to a large area of low pressure gradually
descending down the West Coast. This pattern will tighten pressure
gradients across the state, ultimately increasing winds out of
the southwest. This will likely cause additional fire weather
concerns Thursday through the weekend.

Model guidance suggests this trough lingering across the western
CONUS through potentially the middle of next week, but we`ll have
more details as we get closer to that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 17/12Z through Wednesday 18/12Z...VFR
conditions forecast through the period. Winds will remain S-SW
around 10 kts along and north of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line through
18Z, with stronger W winds gusting 30-40 kts afterwards. Light and
variable winds return by 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 18/12Z through Friday 20/12Z...Variable winds
generally 10 kts or less forecast for Wednesday, becoming
southwest at 10-20 kts on Thursday. Overnight winds expected to be
light and variable. VFR conditions will also persist through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...A Red Flag Warning is in
effect for NE AZ this afternoon/evening due to minimum RH values
mostly below 10% and winds 15-25 mph gusting near 35 mph. Dry
conditions will persist through the rest of the week, but variable
winds generally 10 mph or less forecast for Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Near critical to critical fire weather
conditions expected through the end of the week and into the
weekend. Look for minimum RH values below 10% Thursday and Friday,
slightly increasing on Saturday. Winds will be out of the southwest
at 10-20 mph on Thursday, increasing to 15-30 mph on Friday and
Saturday with gusts near 40 mph possible.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Friday for AZZ006.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ111-113-114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff