483
FXUS65 KFGZ 151056
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
356 AM MST Tue Sep 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Arizona remains under an active pattern through the
end of the week. An area of high pressure looks to briefly build
over Arizona this weekend, keeping things rather dry. Additional
unsettled weather may return next week. Outside of precipitation,
look for seasonable temperatures and breezy southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large area of low pressure remains centered
across the Pacific Northwest. This trough will gradually descend
along the West Coast through the middle of the week, before
lifting towards the weekend. This will keep Arizona under a
southwesterly flow aloft, allowing sufficient moisture to
continue pumping into the state. Plus, this pattern will keep
effective dynamics in place for a severe thunderstorm threat.
Although we are not expecting widespread activity for today
(Tuesday), hi-res guidance suggests greatest coverage of
convection to be across the Mogollon Rim and northward. There
could be a delayed start to activity due to a few showers/storms
that are occurring during the overnight hours tonight. Most
activity is across northern Gila County and the White Mountains
at the moment, but this could easily work over the environment and
lead way to debris clouds across the area after sunrise. Areas
that see cloud cover burn off and warm up, will likely be where
storms/showers fire up first.

This type of synoptic pattern leads way to greater chances for
overnight convection. Hi-res guidance has been consistent with a
large complex of showers/storms pushing up into our CWA Wednesday
morning, and remaining fairly active throughout the
afternoon/early evening. For what it`s worth, guidance over the
last few days hasn`t been the most consistent, so we`ll see what
upcoming runs say as well. Either way, we`ll remain under an
active pattern through the end of the week.

We could see a brief break in activity over the weekend due to the
previously mentioned trough lifting and allowing a ridge to build
over the region. There will probably be a few isolated
showers/storms remaining across the White Mountains, but overall
should be drier this weekend than what we`ve seen this week.

Another trough looks to impact the area early next week, so more
unsettled weather may return. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 15/12Z through Wednesday 16/12Z...Mostly VFR
conditions forecast through the period, but periods of MVFR/IFR
conditions are possible from low clouds and/or heavier SHRA/TSRA.
Outside of gusty/erratic storm driven winds, expect south through
southwest winds 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 16/12Z through Friday 18/12Z...Overnight/early
morning low ceilings possible through the period, along with
periods of MVFR/IFR conditions from heavier SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions. Outside of gusty storm driven winds, expect
south through southwest winds 5-15 kts gusting near 20 kts each
afternoon becoming lighter overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Daily chances for
showers/thunderstorms will continue each day, and we cannot rule
out the possibility of overnight activity too. Gusty/erratic
winds likely in/around storms, with southerly winds 5-15 mph
otherwise. Temperatures will gradually cool each day, landing 5-10
degrees below normal by Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Scattered to widespread
showers/thunderstorms forecast for Thursday, becoming more focused
across the eastern Rim, White Mountains, and Chuska Mountains Friday
and Saturday. Outside of gusty/erratic storm driven winds, look for
south through west winds 5-15 mph. Temperatures expected to slightly
warm near normal through the weekend.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff