200
FXUS65 KFGZ 302305
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
405 PM MST Wed Sep 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures and showers are expected for today
as the storm system from the last couple of days departs the region.
Drier and warmer conditions are expected for the remainder of the
week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Our upper-level low from the past couple of
days has moved eastward into New Mexico. Lingering moisture will
resulting in a few scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm
through this afternoon, primarily across eastern Arizona. Otherwise,
drier conditions and cool temperatures will prevail across much
of the area.

River flooding remains a threat along the Little Colorado River,
with many gauges reaching or expected to reach minor flood stage
from St. Johns to Winslow. Refer the Flood Warning bulletins for
the latest information.

Thursday through Sunday...In the wake of the low, heights begin to
rise across Arizona as high pressure builds back into the region.
Warmer, more seasonable temperatures ensue as a result. Dry
conditions also look to prevail through at least the weekend.

Monday onward...Uncertainly looks to remain in any potential
moisture increase early next week. There is a potential for
Hurricane Rachel to initiate a surge of sub-tropical moisture up the
California Baja, however ensemble guidance does not seem too
optimistic about this. While at the same time, a weak shortwave
looks to move into the Great Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 01/00Z through Friday 02/00Z...Mainly VFR
expected with patchy MVFR CIGs along and east of 0V7-KPAN line
through 03Z. Local MVFR or lower between 09-15Z due to fog/low
CIGs. VRB winds around 5 kts, becoming E-NE 5-10 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 02/00Z through Sunday 04/00Z...VFR expected.
Daytime winds E 5-10 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday through Friday...Dry weather moves in with
temperatures warming back up to seasonal averages. Winds N-NE 5-10
mph Thursday, NE-E 10-15 mph Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Expect a dry weather pattern through the
weekend with near average temperatures and decreasing humidity. A
slight chance of showers or thunderstorms is possible over the
higher terrain Monday afternoon. Expect daytime winds to be NE-E 5-
15 mph Saturday, E-SE 5-15 mph Sunday,  SE-S 5-10 mph Monday. Winds
light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff