085
FXUS65 KFGZ 160428
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
928 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong ridge will continue to bring hot and dry
conditions across the State. A weak short-wave will increase winds
for Monday and Tuesday, resulting in near-critical fire weather
concerns. Another strong ridge sets in for Wednesday through the
end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong ridging remains the main story, keeping hot
temperatures around for this week. Temperatures will be around 5-10
degrees above normal, with the hottest temperatures expected in the
lower elevations of Yavapai County and areas below 4000 feet in the
Grand Canyon. The Extreme Heat Warning will continue through Monday
for the Grand Canyon with temperatures at Phantom Ranch of 110-112
degrees. Tuesday looks to be slightly less hot but temperatures will
rise again on Wednesday and there is high confidence that
temperatures will again exceed 110 degrees with more headlines
likely. If planning outdoor activities, be sure to stay hydrated,
wear light colors, wear plenty of sunscreen, and try to avoid being
out during the hottest parts of the day.

As mentioned above, Tuesday will be a little less hot as a weak
shortwave crosses the region. No precipitation is expected as the
wave is moisture starved. However, the tightening pressure gradient
will bring stronger winds to the region late Monday through Tuesday.
Southwest to west winds around 15 to 25 mph are expected with gusts
of 25 to 35 mph. The strongest gusts look to be across eastern
Arizona on Tuesday, especially across the Little Colorado River
Valley. With the very dry conditions and low RH values (less than
10%), near-critical to critical fire weather concerns are expected.

The ridge reestablishes itself across the region through the rest of
the week. This is a return to hot temperatures through at least
Thursday and likely into Friday. As we head into the weekend, a
trough will start to dig down through the Great Basin. There are
varying solutions on just how far south the trough will dig, but it
looks likely that this will bring in some cooler air and give us
some less hot daytime temperatures along with some gusty winds. The
latest run of the GFS has spun of a weak cut off low in the mid-
levels for Wednesday. However, the ensembles are currently not in
support of this solution. If that low were to materialize, it would
mean less hot temperatures and an increase in winds for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 16/06Z through Tuesday 17/06Z...Look for VFR
conditions. Winds southwest at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts
between 18Z-02Z. For the rest of the period, winds light and
variable at less than 10 kts.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 17/06Z through Thursday 19/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Tuesday will see light winds early becoming southwest
to west at 10-20 kts gusting near 30 kts by midday. Lighter
winds, generally less than 10 kts, return for Tuesday night
through Wednesday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Hot and very dry conditions
will continue, with areas of critical or near-critical fire weather
conditions each day. Expect southwest winds 5-15 mph with gusts 20-
25 mph on Monday, with gusts to 35 mph on Tuesday across NE AZ. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Tuesday afternoon for
portions of NE Arizona.

Wednesday through Friday...Continued hot and very dry, with minimum
RH values 5-10% each day. Generally light winds on Wednesday will
become south-southwesterly 10-20 mph on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Monday for AZZ006.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for AZZ111-113-114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff