005
FXUS65 KFGZ 292320
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Slight chances for precipitation will stick around
into Friday evening, before moisture becomes limited over the
White Mountains and eastern Rim this weekend. High pressure looks
to build over the Southwest next week, which could bring back
additional showers and thunderstorms, especially mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The shortwave that brought scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms early this morning from around I-17/US89
eastward has moved up into UT/CO. In its wake, drier air has moved
in aloft, with shallow near-surface moisture remaining. The
result so far this afternoon has been plenty of flat cumulus
development, but only a few isolated showers. There will still be
a chance of some isolated activity through sunset, with better
chances (40-60%) near the White Mountains. For the weekend - high
pressure is forecast to move northward into Arizona resulting in
warmer and drier conditions. Little to no convective activity is
forecast outside the White Mountains where enough moisture will
linger for isolated to scattered showers and storms. Winds this
weekend will be light, generally under 10 mph. Starting on Labor
Day and continuing through much of next week - high pressure is
forecast to move farther north into the Great Basin region,
allowing for more of an east to southeast flow aloft which is
favorable for some moisture transport northward into our area.
Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances gradually increase
through the week, mainly from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
southward into Yavapai/Gila counties.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 30/00Z through Sunday 31/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA over portions of Apache County ending
by 02Z. Otherwise, ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA INVOF the White Mtns AFT
19Z Saturday. Sfc winds not expected to affect flight operations.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 31/00Z through Tuesday 02/00Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. SCT-NMRS SHRA/-TSRA from 19Z-02Z each day may produce
brief MVFR. Convective activity primarily INVOF the White Mtns, but
may spread NE toward the KFLG terminal. Away from any convective
gust activity, sfc winds are not expected to affect flight
operations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected over the White Mountains and eastern Rim
this weekend. Temperatures warm to or slightly above seasonal
averages. Look for minimum RH values between 15-30% on Saturday,
dipping to 10-30% on Sunday. Expect variable winds 5-15 mph this
weekend. Winds near showers/storms could be gusty/erratic.

Monday through Wednesday...Precipitation chances begin expanding
back westward along the higher terrain as the week progresses.
Maximum temperatures will be slightly above average with a cooling
trend beginning midweek. Minimum RH values generally between 15-30%.
Outside of storm driven winds, expect variable winds 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff