316
FXUS65 KFGZ 131046
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
346 AM MST Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled conditions continue today with another
round of showers and thunderstorms lasting into Tuesday morning.
Things dry out from Tuesday night through the end of the week,
with high temperatures dropping to 5-10 degrees below mid October
averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Northern Arizona is still seeing the affects of
anomalously high moisture across the state and a trough along the
west coast. The parent upper level low is forecast to deepen
while sliding southward along the Pacific coast today. This will
lead to cooling aloft and some forcing for ascent across northern
Arizona. We are already seeing these affects early this morning as
showers and a few thunderstorms continue to develop and move
northward. We expect continued development through the day and
into this evening, before drier air begins to move in tonight.

There is a low threat of severe storms today with sufficient 0-6
bulk shear present early this morning through this evening.
Instability will be the limiting factor, but any stronger cells
that develop will have the potential to produce hail, strong
winds, and possibly a tornado. Low level wind shear and helicity
values are supportive of a low tornado threat. Faster storm motion
should limit the broader flash flood threat, but a localized
threat continues with the possibility of locally heavy rain on
already saturated areas.

As the upper low approaches today, southerly winds will also be on
the increase, especially across western Arizona. Winds will remain
gusty to the north/northeast of the higher terrain tonight as
downslope winds develop. Drier air overspreads the area later
tonight into Tuesday morning bringing an end to rain chances, but
winds will increase a bit more on Tuesday. A Wind Advisory has
been issued from Flagstaff northwest for gusts up to 45 mph. Cool
temperatures are in store through the week, running about 10
degrees colder than normal. Overnight lows will see a significant
drop Wednesday morning onward after the trough moves through. Many
high elevation areas will see lows in the upper 20s
Thursday/Friday mornings. The dry and cool is forecast to continue
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 13/12Z through Tuesday 14/12Z...MVFR conditions
possible in low CIGS and SHRA/TSRA through 02Z, with lingering SHRA,
low CIGS, and patchy BR/FG possible through the rest of the period.
Winds S/SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts, subsiding to 5-15 kts
overnight. Locally gusty winds downwind of the terrain overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 14/12Z through Thursday 16/12Z...VFR conditions,
outside of low CIGS/FG near the higher terrain before 15Z Tuesday.
Daytime winds S/SW 15-20 kts with gusts 30-40 kts on Tuesday,
subsiding to 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms are
expected again today, especially near and east of I-17/US-89. Drier
conditions then set in by Tuesday, with only a slight chance for
showers over the Kaibab Plateau. Winds south/southwest 15-25 mph
with gusts 30-40 mph each day, with the strongest winds likely on
Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Continued dry conditions with seasonably
cool temperatures. Winds southwest 10-15 mph on Wednesday, becoming
west/northwest 5-10 mph for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Tuesday for AZZ007-015.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff