474
FXUS65 KFGZ 160903
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
203 AM MST Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak short-wave will increase winds today and
Tuesday, elevating fire weather concerns. Hot temperatures will
persist through the week, especially when another ridge builds
Wednesday through Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of high pressure continues to dominate much
of the Southwest for this afternoon, but a weak short-wave will
begin descending towards Arizona. This brief pattern change looks
to mainly increase winds today and Tuesday, and slightly drop
daytime highs by a couple of degrees. The elevated winds today and
tomorrow will enhance fire weather concerns across the state,
especially across eastern Arizona on Tuesday. As a result, a Fire
Weather Watch remains in effect for the eastern portion of the
Little Colorado River Valley, the Chuska Mountains and Defiance
Plateau for Tuesday afternoon/evening. The potential need to
upgrade this product will be evaluated with the next forecast
update.

Once this weak wave moves eastward, another strong ridge will
build across the Southwest. This pattern will resume the hot to
dangerously hot daytime highs across the state through at least
the end of the week. With our forecast indicating high
temperatures at or above 110 degrees for Phantom Ranch through
Friday, the Extreme Heat Warning for areas below 4000` at the
Grand Canyon has been extended through Friday evening. Even if you`re not
hiking into the Canyon, be sure to avoid strenuous activity during
the hottest part of the day and drink lots of water!

The upcoming weekend could bring slight relief from the hot
daytime highs, as another low pressure system looks to move in
from the Pacific Northwest. This trough will gradually weaken the
pressure gradients across the Southwest, dropping daytime highs by
several degrees, especially Sunday and Monday. There`s still
details to be worked out on the exact timing/trajectory of this
system, so check back later for more info.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 16/06Z through Tuesday 17/06Z...Look for VFR
conditions. Winds southwest at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts
between 18Z-02Z. For the rest of the period, winds light and
variable at less than 10 kts.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 17/06Z through Thursday 19/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Tuesday will see light winds early becoming southwest
to west at 10-20 kts gusting near 30 kts by midday. Lighter
winds, generally less than 10 kts, return for Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Hot and extremely dry
conditions forecast through the week, with critical fire weather
concerns across E. AZ on Tuesday. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch
has been issued for the eastern Little Colorado River Valley, Chuska
Mountains and Defiance Plateau for Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Southwest winds 10-20 mph expected each afternoon with gusts near 25
mph on Monday, increasing to 35 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Hot and dry conditions will persist.
Light and variable winds expected on Wednesday, becoming south-
southwest 10-20 mph on Thursday, and increasing to 15-25 mph on
Friday. Minimum RH values forecast to remain below 15% each
afternoon, with near critical fire weather conditions likely
returning by the end of the week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Friday for AZZ006.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for AZZ111-113-114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff