438
FXUS65 KFGZ 171715
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1015 AM MST Mon Aug 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures warm up to 5 degrees above average
throughout the week. Low grade monsoon conditions continue with
only isolated storms for the first part of the week. By midweek
thunderstorm coverage begins to increase across the area as more
moisture is drawn into the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the state will keep the region in
low grade monsoon conditions for the next couple days. Sinking
air from this feature will warm things back up above average, as
well as make it harder for showers and storms to develop. Only the
White Mountains and parts of the Rim are expected to see any
activity. High temperatures get pretty close to Extreme Heat
Warning criteria for the lowest parts of the Grand Canyon Tuesday
and Wednesday so the next couple shifts will have to watch and see
if a Heat product needs to be issued for that area.

By midweek the high pressure area shifts to the east and centers
over the Four Corners which is more conducive for more monsoon
moisture to overspread the state. Look for POPs to rise across the
higher terrain Wednesday and by Thursday and Friday most of the
area should see a chance of showers/storms. Temperatures are still
expected to remain above average but a couple degrees cooler which
should keep Heat products from being needed in the lower Grand
Canyon. Continued moisture and cloud cover by this weekend should
get temperatures back down to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 17/18Z through Tuesday 18/18Z...VFR conditions,
brief MVFR near showers/storms. Scattered showers/storms through 03Z
in the White Mountains, with isolated showers/storms possible
over the Rim. Daytime winds SW-W 5-10kts, light and variable or
terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds possible near
storms.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/18Z through Thursday 20/18Z...VFR conditions,
brief MVFR near showers/storms. Chance of isolated to scattered
storms Tuesday over Rim and White Mountains between 18Z-03Z.
Better chance of storms over Rim and White Mountains Wednesday between
18Z-03Z. Winds SW-W 5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain
driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds possible near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Temperatures 5 degrees above
average with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each
day, best coverage over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. Winds SW-W 5-10 mph each day, gusty and erratic winds
possible near storms. Minimum RH values 15% lower deserts to 35% in
the White Mountains.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures continue to be about 5
degrees above average. Scattered showers over the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains on Wednesday, with coverage increasing and spreading
westward on Thursday and Friday. Winds SW-W 5-10 mph each day, gusty
and erratic winds possible near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Zanker
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff