646
FXUS65 KFGZ 171640
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
940 AM MST Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest
winds to create critical fire weather today for much of northern
Arizona. Temperatures will trend closer to normal through
Wednesday, before warming again late in the week. A chance of
thunderstorms arrives Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...No forecast updates needed this AM. Winds are once again
picking up and are expected to be stronger today than they were
yesterday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...An unseasonably cold trough moving
through the northwestern U.S. today will result in a dry and
windy day across Arizona. Wind speeds will be slightly higher than
yesterday with afternoon gusts reaching 35 to 45 mph for most
areas. When combined with low humidity and critically dry fuels,
these winds will generate critical fire weather, and Red Flag
Warnings remain in effect for a good portion of northern Arizona
through this evening. Lower than average heights for this time of
year will yield daytime temperatures a couple of degrees below
normal.

The parent trough heads eastward tonight, but a longwave trough
settles in across much of the western U.S. through at least the
middle of this week. Subsequently, the dry and breezy weather
pattern will persist through the week. Wind speeds will be
lighter the remainder of the week but afternoons will still see
gusts up to 25-30 mph.

Higher pressure begins to take hold later this week as it
gradually builds westward across the southern U.S. Expect warming
temperatures from Thursday into the weekend. Along with the ridge
building into the region, ensemble guidance from both the GEFS
and ENS continue to support an increase in monsoonal moisture
beginning Thursday and spreading westward across the state. The
moisture looks mainly high-based, bringing a threat for high-based
showers and thunderstorms. Chances return Thursday across eastern
Arizona, and spread west from Friday through early next week. As
is typical for early in the monsoon pattern, a dry boundary layer
will limit the potential for measurable rainfall, with lightning
and gusty winds being the bigger threats. With the warming trend
through the week, heat risk in the lower elevations starts to
nudge toward critical levels by late next weekend - something we
will keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 17/18Z through Tuesday 18/18Z...VFR
conditions persisting through the period. Winds S/SW 15-25 kts,
gusting 30-40 kts, becoming W/SW 5-15 kts after 04Z.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/18Z through Thursday 20/18Z...VFR conditions
continue through the period. Daytime winds SW 10-15 kts on
Tuesday, becoming S for Wednesday/Thursday. Generally light and
variable winds expected overnight. Isolated -SHRA/TS develops near
the AZ/NM state ling Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures. Widespread critical fire weather along and north of
the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with
gusts 30-45 mph today, subsiding to 10-15 mph for Tuesday. Minimum
afternoon RH values 5-15% today, then rising to 10-15% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions are expected on Wednesday,
before chances for showers and dry thunderstorms return Thursday and
Friday. Otherwise, warming temperatures and breezy south winds with
afternoon gusts 20-30 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-
006-007-009>016-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR/MCT
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff