430
FXUS65 KFGZ 021115
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
415 AM MST Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue through early next
week. Moisture may return around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to remains across the Desert
Southwest this morning and will stay in place through the weekend.
This pattern keeps us dry through the weekend with hot temperatures
expected. The high starts to shift to the east early in the new
week, which may allow for some moisture to return towards the middle
of the week.

With high pressure continuing to sit over the region, we will
continue to see things drying out. Moisture is meager and any
showers that develop will be limited to Apache County today. With
little to no moisture pushing into the region (outside of the White
Mountains), RH values dropping into the single digits to lower teens
and afternoon breezes, it will keep near-critical fire weather
concerns through at least early next week.

With no relief in sight, the heat will continue across the forecast
area. Depending on whether or not we can get some moisture into the
area by midweek, the current warning for the Grand Canyon may need
to be extended further.

The high looks to push to the east and over New Mexico early in the
week, with the potential for some moisture to advect back into our
area. Whether or not we will be able to see much develop is yet to
be seen and forecast confidence is currently low. Another issue will
be the heat combined with increasing moisture and we may see some of
the hottest conditions of the summer, especially across the lower
elevations of Yavapai County. The heat looks to peak around
Wednesday or Thursday and we may need to raise some headlines.
However, if we can get decent moisture into the region we may see
more cloud cover and in turn could see some lower temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 02/12Z through Sunday 03/12Z...VFR expected.
MVFR possible near and north of a KGCN-KPGA line from smoke.
Light and variable through 17Z, then becoming SW 10-20 kts with
gusts 25-30 kts. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KSOW-KSJN line after
19Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 03/12Z through Tuesday 05/12Z...VFR expected.
MVFR possible near and north of a KGCN-KPGA line from smoke.
W-SW winds 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts on Sunday, increasing to
10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts on Monday. Light and variable
less than 10 kts during the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Hot and mainly dry conditions,
outside of a slight chance for thunderstorms near the White
Mountains this afternoon. Southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30
mph today, becoming west-southwest 10-15 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH
10-25% today, falling to 5-10% on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot and mainly dry conditions. Slight
chance for thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Southwest winds 5-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each
afternoon. Minimum RH 5-15% on Monday, rising to 10-20% for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff