965
FXUS65 KFGZ 041101
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
401 AM MST Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and cooler weather this weekend, with
breezy conditions today. A chance for showers and thunderstorms
will return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A vigorous upper low is centered near Las Vegas
early this morning, and is forecast to lift northeastward into
Wyoming by this afternoon. Any remaining showers with this system
will remain north and east of the state. The passage of the trough
will usher in cooler air today, with high temperatures around 5
degrees below average for early October. The approach of the low
has also kept gusty southwest winds going overnight, with gusts
25-35 over the higher elevations from the Mogollon Rim northward.
The strongest winds will shift into eastern Arizona through the
morning and then gradually decrease during the afternoon. Some gusts
in the 35-45 mph range are expected into the early afternoon along
the downslope zones north of the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns including
Show Low, Springerville-Eagar, and St Johns where a Wind Advisory
has been issued through 3 PM MST this afternoon. With the dry/cool
air mass in place, the coldest morning lows of the season so far
are forecast for Sunday and Monday mornings. Some of the colder
high elevations locations may see their first freeze including
Flagstaff, Bellemont, Tusayan, Window Rock. Make sure to disconnect
garden hoses and cover or bring inside any sensitive plants you
intend to keep.

Typical fall weather is forecast Sunday through Wednesday, with a
gradual warming trend and afternoon southwest breezes of 10-20
mph. High pressure building in from the southeast may push some
increased moisture into eastern Arizona by Wednesday afternoon,
and a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms is in our latest forecast.
Thursday and Friday - enhanced southerly flow is forecast to
develop as Arizona will be between high pressure centered over TX
and a low dropping off the California coast. A brewing tropical
system off the Baja coast could result in an increase in moisture
up into Arizona as it gets caught in this flow, but this is not a
certainty at this point. Shower and thunderstorm chances are
currently in the 20-40% range for these days. This general pattern
may persist through next weekend with a chance of storms continuing.
There is a potential for impacts from heavy rainfall through this
period, but again this is far from certain so please stay tuned
for later updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 04/12Z through Sunday 05/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds southwest 15-25 kts from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
northeastward, with gusts 30-35 kts. Elsewhere, winds 5-15 kts
gusting to 20 kts. Winds rapidly diminishing Saturday evening.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/12Z through Tuesday 07/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds southwest at 5-15 kts with a few gust of 20-25 kts each day
Sunday and Monday. Light winds at night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Temperatures dropping to 5
degrees below average, with dry conditions. Minimum RH values will
be 15-25%. Winds SW-W 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph today,
strongest in eastern Arizona. SW winds 10-20 mph on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday..High temperatures remain 5 degrees below
average Monday, warming to average on Tuesday and Wednesday. There
is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms Wednesday in Apache County, with
otherwise dry conditions. Minimum RH values 10-25% each afternoon.
Daytime winds will be SW 10-20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 PM MST /4 PM MDT/ this afternoon for
AZZ013-014-017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff