062
FXUS65 KFGZ 142324
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
424 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures and dry conditions remain for today.
An approaching storm system then brings cooler temperatures,
gusty winds, and chances for rain and mountain snow over the
weekend. Cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions are expected
to continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Rest of today...One last day of mostly pleasant
weather conditions is anticipated as closed low looms off the
coast of California. Slightly breezy southwest winds and
seasonably warm temperatures are being observed this afternoon.
The most recent hi-res guidance is in agreement that today will
stay dry across our CWA.

Saturday and Sunday...The low pressure system finally begins its
transit inland on Saturday, before pushing northeastward on Sunday.
South/southwest flow ahead of the approaching cyclone will advect
ample moisture into northern AZ, and precipitation will move in
from west to east. The first band of precip looks to reach far
western Yavapai and Coconino counties by Saturday morning, and
slowly spread eastward. A few rounds of showers are expected to
move through bringing periodic heavy rainfall, with things
generally winding down by Sunday evening.


Due to the low center being located to our north, temperatures will
stay warm enough to keep virtually all precipitation in the form of
rain. Snow levels drop as low as 7500-8500 ft by Sunday evening, but
declining precipitation chances will lead to little snowfall near
the surface. The best case scenario is a few inches of snow on the
highest elevation features like the Kaibab or the San Francisco
Peaks. The QPF totals through Sunday evening have trended slightly
lower than previous runs. Current values are around 0.50-1.00 inches
south of the Rim, but locally higher possible in upslope regions.

Gusty winds are also expected as the trough axis passes. The
strongest winds are anticipated late Saturday into Sunday evening,
with gusts 25 to 35 mph even localized to 40 mph possible.

Monday through Wednesday...After the first trough passage, drier
conditions set in Monday with just some isolated showers along the
high terrain. By Tuesday, northern AZ begins to feel the influence
of another low pressure system. Strong southerly/southwesterly flow
will bring another moisture surge, and widespread precipitation
chances return as early as Tuesday morning. There remains
uncertainty the track of the low. Some ensemble members favor the
trough to continue digging and follow more of a southern stream
while others feature a closed low that propagates more to the
north. Regardless, the signal for impactful winter weather remains
weak. The LREF probability of 24 hour snowfall exceeding 2 inches
remains below 30% Tuesday-Wednesday morning. Utilizing the WPC`s
Winter Storm Severity Index, probability of minor impacts remain
below 10-20% for most populated areas.

Thursday and beyond...Long term ensemble guidance show no sign of an
end to this unsettled pattern, with a potential third trough
arriving sometime next weekend. This will be discussed in greater
detail as we move through these next few events.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 15/00Z through Sunday 16/00Z...VFR conditions.
SCT -SHRA after 15Z, spreading from west to east. S-SW winds 5-10
kts gusting to 10-20 kts, becoming light or terrain driven after
01Z. S-SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts after 16Z.
Localized FU due to prescribed burns.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 16/00Z through Tuesday 18/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions with MVFR or lower conditions possible in -SHRA/SHRA
through 12Z Mon. ISO- SCT -SHRA after 12Z Mon, mainly across the
higher terrain. SW winds 15-25 kts gusting 25-35 kts on Sunday,
then S-SW 5-15 kts on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Turning cooler with increasing
showers from west to east through the day on Saturday. Widespread
rain continues Saturday night with some snow mixing in at times in
the higher elevations on Sunday. South to southwest winds 5-15 mph
with gusts to 25-30 mph on Saturday, increasing to 10-20 mph with
gusts to 30-35 mph on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Showers expected on Monday, mainly across
the higher terrain, then increasing chances for rain/snow Tuesday
and Wednesday. South to southwest winds 5-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff