793
FXUS65 KFGZ 022259
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
359 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry weather continues today. Another weak
weather system brings a chance of light rain and snow showers from
late tonight into Wednesday night, mainly from the Mogollon Rim
north and east. Fair weather returns Thursday with a warming
trend beginning on Friday and lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Some mid to upper-level clouds are passing
through today as a subtle shortwave moves past Arizona. The flow
aloft remains primarily northwesterly, and it will remain dry
enough in the sub-cloud layer to keep precipitation away. Expect
near normal temperatures otherwise.

Tomorrow...By early tomorrow morning, a more robust shortwave dives
down into northern AZ. The current trajectory will keep the majority
of precipitation to our north and east, however there will be enough
moisture to support cold and showery conditions tomorrow. Current
timing suggests showers beginning in far northern AZ tomorrow
morning, moving southward through the day, then clearing out by
Thursday morning. Snow and QPF totals have trended slightly higher
than previous runs. The current forecast calls from a dusting to an
inch or two of snow generally above 6000`, with the best confidence
for accumulating snow in sites north of I-40.

This leans more towards the higher percentiles of ensemble guidance,
but still falls below the Minor Impact stage on the Winter Storm
Severity Index. The primary impacts at this time look to be slick
road conditions in the early morning and through the evening where
showers are present.

Thursday and beyond...A dry northwest flow returns after the trough
exits. Chilly daytime temps will linger on Thursday, then gradually
warm to above seasonal normals by the weekend. Quiet weather is
expected through at least the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 03/00Z through Thursday 04/00Z...VFR
conditions expected through much of the period, but areas of mid
to high level clouds expected generally above 5000 ft. Brief MVFR
conditions possible after 18Z from -SHRA/-SHSN, primarily along
and NE of a KGCN-KSEZ-KSOW line. Mostly light and variable winds
expected through much of the period, but SW winds 5-15 kts along
the Mogollon Rim will be possible overnight. Look for west through
north winds 5-15 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 04/00Z through Saturday 06/00Z...Localized
areas of MVFR conditions possible prior to 12Z Thursday due to
-SHRA/-SHSN. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. Mostly light
 winds (10 kts or less) forecast through the period, but breezy
 terrain driven winds during the overnight periods will be
 possible.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Colder conditions arrive
for Wednesday as chances for rain and snow showers develop, mainly
along and north of the I-40 corridor. Drier air follows this system
for Wednesday night and Thursday, with cool temperatures continuing.
Winds will stay generally light, but will switch northwesterly for
Wednesday, then northerly to northeasterly on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with temperatures gradually
rising into the weekend. Winds will remain light and mostly variable.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff