191
FXUS65 KFGZ 140834
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
134 AM MST Mon Sep 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...An active pattern will remain in place through the end
of the week. Greatest coverage for showers/storms look to be
during the afternoon/early evening hours each day, but we cannot
rule out the potential for overnight activity. Otherwise, expect
seasonable daytime highs and breezy southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Shortwave is moving through the western part of the
state right now. Some early morning storms are initiating right
now and more will as the day progresses as there`s still plenty of
monsoon moisture across the state for this wave to utilize. Since
the shortwave is in the western part of the state already, the
main focus for activity will be the eastern half of the state,
mainly east of Interstate 17 and US-89. Once again the main
threats from these showers/storms will be heavy rain and isolated
flash flooding as well as the potential for a few of these storms
to reach severe levels with strong downburst winds and some
quarter sized hail. Storms could potentially last into the
nighttime hours tonight into Tuesday morning.

The rest of the week will remain pretty active as troughing over
the West Coast keeps rotating shortwaves across the area that
will be able to feed off the monsoon moisture in place. Coverage
will be dependent on how far east the trough sets up as well as
the activity from the previous day which could potentially work
the atmosphere over for the following day. So will have to go with
a general broad brush of shower and thunderstorm chances lasting
through the week with better specifics the day of the event after
seeing what the previous day did. The hazards mentioned in the
previous paragraph will certainly be possible each day.

Friday afternoon into the weekend, it looks like the West Coast
trough advances eastward through the weekend, allowing a ridge to
build to our west and put us under a northwest flow aloft. If
this scenario takes place, the monsoon moisture will be shoved out
of the state and we`ll be in a dry pattern this weekend into next
week. It`s a bit early to say this is the end of the monsoon for
the year but it definitely will put a big pause to it if this does
in fact pan out.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 14/06Z through Tuesday 15/06Z...Expect patchy
ceilings 4-7 kft AGL over the next 24 hours. Mainly isolated
-SHRA/-TSRA overnight periods and scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
 between 18Z-02Z producing occasional MVFR conditions. Daytime
 winds outside of gusty thunderstorms/outflows, south to southwest
 at 10-20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 15/06Z through Thursday 17/06Z...Expect patchy
ceilings at 5-8 kft AGL. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA mainly
between 18Z-03Z each day with generally isolated -SHRA/-TSRA the
remainder of the time. Occasional MVFR conditions anticipated.
Daytime winds outside of thunderstorms/outflows, south to
southwest at 10-20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist into Sunday evening, especially over
Yavapai and Coconino counties. Gradual clearing overnight, but
redevelopment may occur early Monday morning as outflows approach
from the south. The chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
Monday and Tuesday, but the focus shifts eastward, due to a trough
passing to our north. Mainly daytime south through southwest winds
from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph, can be expected each day.
Temperatures will remain right around normal.

Wednesday through Friday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue, possibly becoming more widespread during this time frame.
Daytime southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff