975
FXUS65 KFGZ 010936
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
236 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread rainfall will continue through late
Sunday evening. Heavy accumulations are expected, especially
along/south of the Mogollon Rim. Flooding/flash flooding will be
possible across the entire region. This is a serious situation.
Stay tuned to your favorite weather source and find a way to
receive warnings. Stay away from waterways. Turn around, don`t
drown.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A concerning hydrological threat will evolve across
Northern Arizona over the next 24 hours with the arrival of an
atmospheric river. Widespread areas will see 1-3 inches, with some
localized areas along/south of the Mogollon Rim up to 4-6 inches.
Hydrological issues will be enhanced due to the already very
saturated soil conditions, and it will take less rainfall than
usual to cause problems. Both flash flooding and river flooding
will be a problem, with some area waterways remaining elevated for
days beyond the main event. Be prepared in case you need to take
action or need to head to higher ground. Have a way to receive
warnings and always remember, TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN!

The deep surge of subtropical moisture has already arrived early
this morning. Current mesoanalysis shows a strengthening mid-level
jet and a plume of PWAT values >1 inch moving in from the southwest.
Also, current surface observations show south-southwest winds
gusting as high as 30-40 mph as of 1 AM MST. Widespread light to
moderate showers are currently ongoing as a result of these factors.
The heaviest rainfall is currently along/south of the Mogollon Rim
with help from orographic influences, though periods of moderate
rain can be expected virtually area wide this morning and into the
daytime today. By the late afternoon through evening, a cold
front associated with a strong northern stream low will cross the
region bringing continued threats of heavy rain and even a
marginal severe threat across southern and eastern AZ. Much drier
air will follow in the wake of the frontal passage. A Flood Watch
will remain in effect for all of northern and central Arizona
through Sunday night, though river flooding will likely linger for
several days after.

There will also be a strong wind threat. Very gusty surface winds
have already been noted early this morning, and are forecast to
strengthen into the daytime today. A Wind Advisory will go into
effect today for the Little Colorado River Valley, Eastern
Mogollon Rim, and White Mountains where gusts as high as 40-50 mph
are possible. Breezy winds up to 30-40 mph are still possible
outside these regions.

There is also potential for snow mostly above 7500-8000 ft
elevation before things fully dry out on Sunday night. The main
area of concern is the Kaibab Plateau where 1-2 inches of snow are
possible. A dusting of snow will also be possible for the higher
elevation locations around the Flagstaff area. Fully dry
conditions are expected by Monday afternoon and through the week
as ridging dominates. Another trough will brush past Arizona on
Wednesday, but this looks to remain mostly dry at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 01/06Z through Monday 02/06Z...WDSPRD MVFR/IFR
through the TAF period. Periods of IFR/LIFR possible in +RA and lows
CIGS over the higher terrain. Winds SE-SW 5-10 kts through 15Z, then
becoming S/SW 10-20 kts with gusts 30-40 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 02/06Z through Wednesday 04/06Z...WDSPRD MVFR/IFR
in +RA/RA through 12Z-16Z Monday, then VFR. Areas of LIFR possible
in FG/low CIGS over the higher terrain. Winds W/NW 5-15 kts Monday,
becoming NW-NE Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Widespread rainfall will
continue today, eventually decreasing in coverage by the late
evening. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible. Heavy
accumulations are expected especially along/south of the Rim.
Threats of flooding and flash flooding will be exacerbated by the
already very saturated ground conditions. Strong winds are also
expected. Winds are southwest 15-25 mph gusting up to 30-40 mph
this morning, then gusts as high as 50 mph possible across eastern
AZ this afternoon. Winds turn more westerly and gradually
diminish through Sunday night, becoming northwest 10-20 mph on
Monday afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...A drier weather pattern is expected
through this period, with lingering flooding impacts possible. Winds
are easterly 5-15 mph on Tuesday, turning westerly 10-20 mph on
Wednesday, then light and variable on Thursday. Minimum RH above 30-
50% through the period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ004>018-037>040.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening
for AZZ012>014-016-017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff