001
FXUS65 KFGZ 172048
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
148 PM MST Thu Sep 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers continue through the afternoon in
far eastern AZ, with only isolated activity elsewhere.
Precipitation chances will diminish through the weekend, with the
potential for more unsettled weather next week. Expect chilly
morning lows especially Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Following the very active day yesterday, a
downturn in activity is in store for many. Much of the hi-res
guidance indicates potential for more thunderstorms across Navajo
and Apache county, however we are yet to see any deep convection
as of 1300 MST. The continuous band of light showers and clouds
overnight into this morning may be hindering daytime
destabilization in this region. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
will still be possible towards the late afternoon especially if we
see better clearing. Further west, drier air is beginning to move
in and storms are expected to stay isolated. There is a slight
chance for showers to continue overnight across eastern AZ as
another shortwave passes.

Friday through Sunday...A continued downturn in activity is
expected. A larger west coast trough is forecast to push inland on
Friday-Saturday and introduce much drier air. A few showers and
thunderstorms will still be possible across the AZ-NM border on
Friday before drier air moves in. By Saturday and Sunday showers
will be extremely isolated to nonexistent as PWAT drops to below the
25th percentile. The dry air also means cold morning lows. Many
areas across the high country will see temperatures dip into the 30s
on Sunday morning, with some locations seeing the first freeze of
the year.

Monday and beyond...Another west coast trough looks to approach
early next week. Uncertainty starts to increase considerably at this
point, but the general consensus among ensemble guidance is for
shower chances to increase Monday-Tuesday

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 17/18Z through Friday 18/18Z...Flight
conditions will improve through the afternoon after some localized
MVFR/IFR early this morning. Brief MVFR conditions associated
with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue through the
afternoon/early evening, mainly east of a KPAN-K0V7 line, with
only a slight chance farther west. Winds S to SW 5-15 kts
daytime, light and variable overnight. Gusty and erratic winds in
and near thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Friday 18/18Z through Sunday 20/18Z...Mostly VFR
conditions. Isolated SHRA/TSRA with localized MVFR conditions,
primarily over the eastern third of the state. Winds S to SW 10-20
kts daytime, light and variable overnight. Gusty and erratic
winds near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Saturday...Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will continue into early this evening over the
eastern third of the state, with drier conditions elsewhere.
Isolated showers and storms will continue Friday and Saturday,
mainly over far eastern Arizona. Daytime winds S-SW 10-20 mph,
light/variable overnight. Expect gusty and erratic winds in/near
storms.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry area wide on Sunday. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns Monday afternoon through Tuesday as a
trough moves through. Temperatures will remain near average. Winds S-
SW 5-15 mph during the daytime hours, becoming light and variable
overnight.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff