786
FXUS65 KFGZ 031608
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
908 AM MST Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Much warmer temperatures and dry conditions are
expected this week as high pressure builds over the Southwest.
Temperatures begin to cool gradually for this weekend with the
potential for a few showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...Expect breezy southwest winds, 15-25 mph, for this
afternoon with a continuation of dry conditions and near average
temperatures. Mid to upper-level clouds will increase in coverage
for this afternoon and into Tuesday as a high pressure ridge
begins to build over the Southwest. Conditions remain dry for much
of this week with the main story being much warmer temperatures,
10-15 degrees above average for the latter half of the week. As
the ridge builds, a warming and drying trend develops as winds
shift to the west-northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday, becoming
northeast each night. The shower chances for later this week and
into the weekend have decreased. Something to keep our eye on,
however, plan on the warmest temperatures so far this year. Happy
Meteorological Summer!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /418 AM MST/...Not much change in the forecast
through Thursday as near normal temperatures today and Tuesday
give way to much hotter weather mid to late week. This is due to
strong high pressure building over the state. There were some
changes to the forecast later in the week as the influence from
the closed low off the Baja peninsula is somewhat less in the
latest guidance for our region Friday/Saturday. The low is
forecast to move more slowly northward, keeping the high in place
and allowing for less moisture/clouds for Friday and Saturday. For
this reason, the Excessive Heat Watch for the lower elevations of
Yavapai Co, Grand Canyon, and Marble/Glen Canyons/Page has been
extended and now includes both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
below 4000 feet in these areas are forecast to reach 105-111
degrees. It will be hot elsewhere too, upper 90s for
Prescott/Payson, near 90 at Flagstaff/Show Low/Window Rock, and
100-104 in the LCR Valley/Winslow. With the lower expected
moisture availability, PoPs have also dropped off and are now
around 20% for the White Mtns Thursday and Friday and below 10%
elsewhere. Chances for Saturday and Sunday are around 10-20% for
most of northern Arizona. Any shower/storm activity still looks to
be high-based with little rainfall, gusty winds, and some
isolated dry lightning. As the weak low shifts northward toward
the state over the weekend, high temperatures should be slightly
less hot - back down to within a few degrees of normal by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 03/12Z through Tuesday 04/12Z...VFR conditions
will persist through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will
last through at least 16Z, with W-SW winds 10-20 kts gusting near
25 kts afterwards. Light and variable winds will return overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 04/12Z through Thursday 06/12Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the outlook period. Look for W-NW winds 5-15
kts on Tuesday, becoming more variable in direction on Wednesday.
Overnight winds are forecast to be light and variable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Warming temperatures and dry
conditions will continue each afternoon. Look for west-southwest
winds 10-20 mph on Monday, becoming west-northwest winds 5-15 mph
on Tuesday. Minimum RH values will mostly be between 10-20%, with
overnight recoveries widely ranging from 35-75%.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures are expected to climb 10+
degrees above normal, with mostly dry conditions. There is a slight
chance for high-based showers/thunderstorms Thursday and Friday,
primarily for our eastern zones. Winds generally 10 mph or less and
varying in direction forecast for Wednesday, becoming more southwest
5-15 mph Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH values generally between 5-
15% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
evening for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/JJ
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny/MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff