556
FXUS65 KFGZ 290456
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
956 PM MST Wed Oct 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue
through Thursday. A series of Pacific storm systems will tap into
more tropical moisture beginning Friday, with widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving across the state. Shower chances will
diminish a bit for Saturday, with a more significant storm system
possible for late Saturday night and Sunday. Stay tuned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...After a break in precipitation the past few days,
another period of unsettled on potentially very wet weather is in
store starting early Friday. There is a brief lull in rain and
thunderstorms through much of the day Saturday before the next
wave of significant rainfall moves in later Saturday night through
late Sunday. The first shower and thunderstorms chances begin
during the early morning hours on Friday, as tropical moisture
heads northward into our region and combines with an approaching
upper level wave. A general 0.20"-0.80" rainfall is currently
forecast from the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns southward, with some
localized heavier amounts over 1" for portions of southern Yavapai
County and favored upslope regions along the rim. Some localized
flooding could develop, again areas mainly south of the Mogollon
Rim would be favored.

Late Friday evening through Saturday afternoon looks to be a lull
in precipitation as the first wave moves eastward and the next
stronger system begins to approach from the west. By Saturday
night through the day on Sunday, very deep moisture is forecast to
move across our region from the Pacific. Two upper level features
will also impact the region, one wave moving east off the Pacific
at a fairly low latitude (starting at 30 degrees north), and the
other is a deep upper low moving from the PacNW toward the Great
Basin. The majority of guidance produces heavy rainfall across
much of our forecast area, with the heaviest from the upslope
regions of the Mogollon Rim southward, and somewhat lighter but
still significant rain to the north including Navajo Nation.
Current projections are for widespread 1-3" rainfall along/south
of the Mogollon Rim, with locally higher amounts of 4" in the most
favored upslope regions. With soils still wet from previous weeks
of rain, this amount of additional rainfall would cause flooding
issues. WPC has included all of our forecast area in a Slight Risk
for excessive rainfall late Saturday through Sunday, and we will
be closely monitoring this potential. Additionally, increased shear,
large-scale ascent and colder air aloft raises the risk for severe
weather, especially late Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 29/06Z through Friday 30/06Z...VFR conditions
expected. Localized VIS reductions near KFLG and KSEZ due to
prescribed burns. Light and variable or terrain driven winds
overnight, becoming S-SW 5-10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts after 17Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 30/06Z through Sunday 01/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions
expected. After 12Z Friday, ISO-SCT -SHRA and ISO -TSRA with localized
MVFR through the period. Daytime S-SW winds 5-10 kts with gusts 15-20
kts, then light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...A cooling trend is expected to
wrap up the week, with daytime highs landing 5-10 degrees below
normal by Friday. Dry conditions will last through Thursday, with
showers and thunderstorms ramping up early Friday morning. Greatest
coverage looks to be along and south of the Mogollon Rim for much of
Friday. Gusty/erratic winds possible in/near storms, with south-
southwest 5-15 mph expected otherwise.

Saturday through Monday...Cool temperatures will persist, with the
coldest temperatures forecast for Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms
forecast each day, with Sunday having the greatest risk and greatest
coverage for flooding/severe weather. Look for south-southwest winds
5-15 mph Saturday, increasing to 10-25 mph on Sunday, and shifting
out of the northeast on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff