297
FXUS65 KFGZ 291009
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
309 AM MST Wed Jul 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms continue today, before most
activity slowly tapers down to isolated coverage later this week and
into the weekend. Once the activity slows down, expect daytime high
temperatures to soar, likely reaching the warmest readings so far
this year by the coming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure still remains to our east and is in a
slightly weakened state, due to weak troughing over the western
Great Basin. Moisture levels are still on the high side, largely
due to influx that arrived on Tuesday. There is also a weak MCV
along the Lower Colorado River, forecast to move toward the Kaibab
Plateau later this afternoon. All these things point toward at
least scattered activity again today. The catch is, southerly
steering flow and the MCV enhancement will favor areas along and
north of the I-40 corridor, as well as the usual elevated heat
source of the White Mountains.

After today, the high begins to move westward and strengthen, This
slowly introduces drier, mid-level air and subsidence, activity will
slow down. We don`t expect a total stop, but it will be slow through
the weekend. The high may return to a more favorable location by
next week, with easterly steering flow returning, but much can
change in a week and we will see.

Additionally, once the high relocates and strengthens, along with
the Monsoon pause/slow down, temperatures will soar. We expect many
areas to reach the warmest readings so far this year. The various
heat products that have been issued remain appropriate.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 29/06Z through Thursday 30/06Z...ISO-SCT
SHRA/TSRA from 19Z to 03Z, mainly north of a KCMR-KJTC line. Brief
periods of MVFR conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess of 40
kts possible in and around TS. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with
VRB winds 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 30/06Z through Saturday 01/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISO SHRA/TSRA each afternoon/evening, with the greatest
likelihood over the higher terrain. Brief periods of MVFR conditions
and gusty outflow winds possible in and around TS. Otherwise, expect
VRB winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Expect scattered showers
and thunderstorms again today, especially north of the I-40 corridor
and over the White Mountains. A downturn begins on Thursday, as high
pressure strengthens overhead. Expect mainly light winds outside of
thunderstorms, but trending toward westerly through southwesterly 5
to 15 mph over higher terrain in the afternoon hours. Temperatures
stay around normal for more day, but then rise above normal starting
on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...A continued downturn in Monsoonal activity
is expected through this period. A chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms remains possible over higher terrain, mainly the White
Mountains. Temperatures will rise significantly during this period
and many areas seeing the warmest conditions so far this year. Winds
will be generally light and variable at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Friday to 8 PM MST
/9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005-038, as well as AZZ018-037 below 4000
feet.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM MST Sunday for
AZZ006 below 4000 feet.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff