896
FXUS65 KFGZ 111916
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1216 PM MST Tue Aug 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect active Monsoon conditions this week, along
with cooler daytime temperatures. A break in the monsoon or low
grade monsoon conditions are possible this weekend as a West Coast
trough approaches the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure centered over the Four Corners will
begin moving east later this week. A high amount of moisture sits
over the state at this time which will lead to numerous showers
and storms during both the day and nighttime hours. Steering flow
this afternoon will be off to the northwest, but as the high
shifts further east storm motion will be towards the north or
northeast on Wednesday. As soils become more saturated as the week
progresses, flash flooding will definitely be a concern across the
region.

Big wild card in the forecast for late this week and into the
weekend will be an approaching trough coming in off the West
Coast which could bring some drier air into the region. Depending
on how far south the trough digs will be the determination on
whether or not we get a brief break in the monsoon or no break at
all. Compared to yesterday`s model run, it looks like the trough
may give the area a brief pause in the monsoon on Saturday with
only the White Mountains seeing any good POPS. Sunday and Monday
brings a wetter solution with POPs returning across the Rim versus
remaining dry like in the previous run. Will keep an eye on
things and see what happens.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 11/18Z through Wednesday 12/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected outside of thunderstorms. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA,
becoming SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA after 20Z, with the greatest storm
activity along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSJN line. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess of 45 kts are
possible in and around +TS. Storm activity is forecast to decrease
after 03Z, though outflow may continue to support ISO SHRA/TSRA
near KPRC and KINW until 05Z or 06Z. Outside of storms, expect
W-SW winds 5-15 kts, becoming light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/18Z through Friday 14/18Z...Mainly VFR. SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA each day from 19Z-03Z, especially over the higher
terrain. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess
of 40 kts possible in and around +TS. Otherwise, daytime winds W/SW
5-15 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Daytime max temps will be
below normal as we expect active Monsoon conditions each day, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, first developing
over the higher terrain. Stronger storms may contain heavy rain,
hail, and gusty/erratic winds. Outside of thunderstorms, expect
generally light winds.

Friday through Sunday...Active conditions continue Thursday with a
brief period of drying possible by Friday or Saturday and continuing
into Sunday. Daytime temperatures will continue to be below normal
through Friday, with a slight rebound this weekend. outside of
storms, expect southwesterly winds at 10 to 15 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Schank
FIRE WEATHER...Schank

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff