853
FXUS65 KFGZ 092320
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect warm days, cool nights and very dry weather
through this week and into the next.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A dry northwest flow will remain entrenched across
the southwest United States into Saturday. Later on Saturday
through Monday a weak embedded weather disturbance will deliver
slightly cooler temperatures and variable high clouds, but that is
about it. Dry northwest flow will return for the remainder of next
week.

This afternoon through Saturday...A mild and dry air mass with
origins from over the central Pacific will result in unseasonably
warm daytime temperatures ranging from 10 to 20 degrees above
average. The dry air mass and mainly clear skies associated with
this pattern will result in strong radiational nocturnal cooling
with seasonably chilly overnight lows. Winds will primarily remain
light and variable at 5 to 10 mph through the period. The
exception, local drainage breezes of 10 to 20 mph south of the
Mogollon Rim due to the strong nocturnal cooling.

From Saturday into early next week...A weak and dry low pressure
system will result in cooler daytime temperatures. Otherwise, look
for high clouds from Saturday afternoon into Sunday associated with
the core of this weak system. Light winds will continue, southwest
to west on Saturday and Sunday shifting to more northwesterly on
Sunday and Monday.

It appears our dry northwest flow pattern strengthens again later
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 10/00Z through Thursday 10/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions and generally light winds. ENE winds will develop in the
overnight hours downwind of higher terrain features, including
terminal KSEZ.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 11/00Z through Saturday 13/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions and generally light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry and warm conditions
will continue with high temperatures reaching 10-20 degrees above
average. Light and variable daytime winds around 5 to 15 mph each
day. Minimum RH values between 20-35% each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Dry and warm conditions will continue this
weekend with high temperatures reaching 10-20 degrees above average.
Light and variable daytime winds around 5 to 15 mph each day.
Minimum RH values between 20-35% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff