592
FXUS65 KFGZ 161140
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
440 AM MST Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...An uptick in monsoonal moisture is forecast through
Friday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected each
day. Cooler temperatures are also expected through the rest of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday...With the high now in place over New
Mexico, and weak troughing near the Gulf of California, sub-tropical
moisture is advected northward into Arizona. PWATs look to increase
to near the 90th percentile for this time of year, which will usher
in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across northern
Arizona. Activity looks likely peak on Thursday, as added upper-
level dynamics from the approaching trough will aid in upscale growth
for the storms. However, latest guidance does seem to track the low
further westward (initially), which may limit it`s overall
influence.

Given the increase in moisture, flash flooding looks to be the
primary concern over the next few days. A couple more vigorous
storm may be able to produce some hail and gusty winds, however
widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Saturday through Tuesday...Over the weekend the aforementioned
trough begins to propagate eastward, ushering in drier air behind
it (especially across the western-half of the state). Global
ensembles do point to a downward trend in PWATs as a result.
However, with the ridge still in place to the east, the monsoonal
flow looks to keep enough moisture remaining in place to keep
isolated to scattered activity in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 16/12Z through Thursday 17/12Z...SHRA/TSRA is
expected to develop N/E of KCMR-KPAN line after 19Z, then gradually
move southwest through 06Z. Some lingering SHRA will be possible
thereafter. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds will be
possible in and around TS. HZ/FU possible near KGCN/KPGA due to
nearby wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds SW-NW 5-15 kts
with gusts 20-25 kts in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 17/12Z through Saturday 19/12Z...Widespread
SHRA/TSRA continues, with strongest storms likely between 18Z-04Z
each afternoon/evening. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic
winds will be possible in and around TS. Otherwise, VFR conditions
with W/SW winds 5-15 kts on Thursday, becoming S/SW on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Increasing monsoon moisture
will bring scattered thunderstorms Wednesday, becoming more
widespread Thursday. These storms will be capable of producing a
wetting rainfall. Gusty outflow winds and flash flooding will be the
primary hazards. Otherwise, daytime winds west/southwest 5-10 mph
with gusts 10-20 mph each day.

Friday through Sunday...Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
Friday, beginning to decrease in coverage for the weekend. Wetting
rains are likely within any stronger storms. Winds west/southwest 5-
10 mph with gusts 10-20 mph each day. Gusty, erratic winds possible
in and around thunderstorm

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff