218
FXUS65 KFGZ 241010
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
310 AM MST Fri Jul 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build into the area through the
weekend leading to hotter temperatures. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with increasing
coverage spreading westward starting Saturday and continuing
through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure will be centered just to our
east into the middle of next week. This will lead to generally
above normal temperatures, with the hottest days forecast today
and Saturday. Monsoon moisture remains over the region, though PW
values are a bit lower than we saw earlier in the week. There is
still plenty of moisture for scattered high country storms and
isolated activity at lower elevations today. Starting Saturday and
continuing into early next week, additional moisture will arrive
from southeast to northwest with increasing storm coverage, first
along the rim and White Mtns Saturday and then spreading farther
north and west each day. Again the main threat with storms will be
elevated risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
especially since many areas have wet ground conditions. The
Extreme Heat Warning continues for the lower elevations of Grand
Canyon as well as Marble/Glen Canyons through Sunday. Lower
elevation areas of Yavapai County will also see elevated HeatRisk,
but the uncertainty of afternoon storms and associated rain-
cooled air kept us from issuing a warning there. Temperatures next
week should be a bit cooler, but areas that don`t see as much
storm activity will still be quite hot as the ridge will continue
to be stronger than usual for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 24/12Z through Saturday 25/12Z...Mainly VFR
expected. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions, gusty/erratic winds, and hail possible in stronger
storms. Outside of storms, expect light and variable or terrain
driven winds.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 25/12Z through Monday 27/12Z...Mainly VFR
expected. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA, mainly between 18Z-03Z each day.
Brief MVFR/IFR conditions, gusty/erratic winds, and hail possible
in stronger storms. Outside of storms, expect light and variable
or terrain driven winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms are expected over the higher
terrain, with only isolated activity at lower elevations. High
temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above average. Winds are generally
light through the period outside of outflow and thunderstorm
activity. Minimum RH`s 15-30%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Monsoon moisture trends upward with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures 5-10 degrees above
average Sunday trend back towards average Monday and Tuesday.
Generally light winds outside of outflow and thunderstorm activity.
Minimum RH 15-25% lower deserts to 30-45% higher terrain.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning to
8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005-006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff