663
FXUS65 KFGZ 291951
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1251 PM MST Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Slight chances for precipitation will stick around
into Friday evening, before moisture becomes limited over the
White Mountains and eastern Rim this weekend. High pressure looks
to build over the Southwest next week, which could bring back
additional showers and thunderstorms, especially mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The shortwave that brought scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms early this morning from around I-17/US89
eastward has moved up into UT/CO. In its wake, drier air has moved
in aloft, with shallow near-surface moisture remaining. The
result so far this afternoon has been plenty of flat cumulus
development, but only a few isolated showers. There will still be
a chance of some isolated activity through sunset, with better
chances (40-60%) near the White Mountains. For the weekend - high
pressure is forecast to move northward into Arizona resulting in
warmer and drier conditions. Little to no convective activity is
forecast outside the White Mountains where enough moisture will
linger for isolated to scattered showers and storms. Winds this
weekend will be light, generally under 10 mph. Starting on Labor
Day and continuing through much of next week - high pressure is
forecast to move farther north into the Great Basin region,
allowing for more of an east to southeast flow aloft which is
favorable for some moisture transport northward into our area.
Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances gradually increase
through the week, mainly from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
southward into Yavapai/Gila counties.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 29/18Z through Saturday 30/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. Isolated storms and showers possible, mainly over
eastern Arizona higher terrain between 18Z Friday and 03Z
Saturday. Gusty/erratic winds possible near storms. Otherwise,
look for winds W 5-15 kts during the day, light and variable or
terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 30/18Z through Monday 01/18Z...VFR conditions
expected through the period. Isolated showers and storms possible,
mainly over eastern Arizona higher terrain between 18Z and 03Z
each day. Outside of gusty/erratic winds near storms, look for
variable winds 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected over the White Mountains and eastern Rim
this weekend. Temperatures warm to or slightly above seasonal
averages. Look for minimum RH values between 15-30% on Saturday,
dipping to 10-30% on Sunday. Expect variable winds 5-15 mph this
weekend. Winds near showers/storms could be gusty/erratic.

Monday through Wednesday...Precipitation chances begin expanding
back westward along the higher terrain as the week progresses.
Maximum temperatures will be slightly above average with a cooling
trend beginning midweek. Minimum RH values generally between 15-30%.
Outside of storm driven winds, expect variable winds 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff