339
FXUS65 KFGZ 140012
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
512 PM MST Thu Aug 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and a slight downturn in
monsoon activity is expected for Friday into next week. Monsoon
activity may start to pick up again around the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains centered well to the east of the
region this afternoon with a trough digging down to our west. The
trough will dig down and then move into Arizona tonight. The high
blocks the forward progression of the trough and we remain situated
in between the two features through the weekend. As we head into next
week, the high starts to reestablish itself and shifts westward,
eventually settling over the desert southwest by midweek. Now that
we have the pattern established, let`s talk about the details.

Tonight through Friday...scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue through this afternoon and into this evening, mainly along
a line from the Kaibab Plateau down through the Mogollon Rim to the
White Mountains. Plenty of  moisture is across the region and storms
have been a pretty efficient rain producers. Flash flooding remains
the greatest threat through today. Even though storm motions have
been faster (10-15 mph) we continue to see training/backbuilding of
storms, which only increases the potential for flash flooding as
heavy rain becomes prolonged over one area. Shear is pretty weak at
the surface but strengthens quite a bit as you move aloft (as seen
on out 18Z sounding). Best instability and lift is over western
Arizona, closer to the trough axis, where the potential for strong
to severe storms will remain possible. Expect a similar set up for
Friday, with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms
and the potential for flash flooding.

Saturday through Sunday...the pull between the ridge to the east and
the trough to the west will place us in more of a southwesterly
flow, bringing in some drier air and warmer temperatures. Moisture
doesn`t fully scour out and we may continue to see some isolated
activity, mainly confined to the White Mountains and the higher
elevations.

Monday and onward...The high starts to really make push back to the
west which may help to increase moisture across the region once
again. If the high is able to settle in a more favorable position,
we should start to see storm activity increase little by little each
day.

Another day of scattered storms, then a downturn in activity into
early next week before we could see a return to a more active
monsoon. Plenty to look forward to in the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 14/00Z through Saturday 15/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions away from thunderstorms. Scattered SHRA/TSRA and
isolated +TSRA through 03Z, with activity declining overnight.
Stronger storms may produce brief MVFR/IFR conditions and wind
gusts as high as 45 kts. Otherwise, afternoon winds west to
southwest at 10-15 kts, becoming light and variable overnight.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing again after 19Z on Friday, most
numerous over northwest Arizona.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 15/00Z through Monday 17/00Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions away from thunderstorms. On Saturday, a downturn in
storm activity is forecast with mainly isolated -SHRA/-TSRA over
the mountains for the weekend. Stronger storms may produce brief
MVFR/IFR conditions and wind gusts as high as 45 kts. Daytime
winds west to southwest at 5-15 kt, light and variable at night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...On Friday look for numerous
showers and thunderstorms across northwest Arizona, generally
isolated to scattered for the remainder of the area. Saturday will
see a downturn in activity with mainly isolated storms over the
Mountain areas. Daytime temperatures will remain at or near normal,
with afternoon southwest winds from 10 to 15 mph, outside of any
convection.

Sunday through Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms will be few and
far between for most of northern Arizona. The exception, scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity is still anticipated for the
eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mountains and Chuska Mountains.
Temperatures will gradually warm with light south to southwest winds
each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff