565
FXUS65 KFGZ 180458
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
958 PM MST Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure rebounds into the area tomorrow bringing
lighter winds and warm to hot temperatures. A large dry trough
begins to impact the area late Thursday afternoon and lasting
through the weekend. No precipitation expected but winds will be
elevated and with the dry air mass in place, critical fire weather
is a concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The shortwave that brought the breezy conditions and
slight cool down will be off to the east by Wednesday, allowing
high pressure to quickly rebound across the area. This will bring
temperatures back to around what we saw last weekend. An Excessive
Heat Warning for parts of the Grand Canyon below 4000 feet will
continue until at least Friday evening to cover the incoming heat.
Needless to say plan accordingly if you decide to do any outdoor
recreation on the Rims or in the Canyon interior. Winds will
decrease tomorrow which will allow the critical fire threat to
back off some for a couple days.

By Thursday night into Friday a stronger trough will begin to move
towards the area and will put us under a southwesterly flow aloft.
The jet stream moves closer to us on Friday and Saturday which
will provide for breezy to windy conditions. This along with the
continued dry air mass across the region will lead to widespread
critical fire weather conditions on both those days. A Fire
Weather Watch wasn`t issued on this shift as to allow for the
current Red Flag Warning to expire, but will likely be forthcoming
in the next shift or two.

This trough looks to remain over the area through the early part
of next week and will cool temperatures below normal Sunday
onward, with temperatures about 10-15 degrees cooler than the high
temperatures expected this Wednesday and Thursday, a nice relief
to what we`ve seen lately.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 18/06Z through Thursday 19/06Z...VFR
conditions, with VRB winds 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 19/06Z through Saturday 21/06Z...VFR conditions.
Daytime winds S/SW 10-15 kts on Thursday, increasing to 15-20 kts on
Friday. Winds becoming VRB 5-10 kts during the overnight, with
locally breezy winds possible downwind of the terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for portions of NE AZ through Tuesday at 8 PM
MST, where minimum RH is 5-10% and winds are 15-25 mph gusting 30-40
mph. Winds become variable at 10 mph or less on Wednesday, then
southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH
remains 5-10% each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Near critical to critical fire weather
conditions expected each day. Minimum RH is 5-10% on Friday.
Humidity trends slightly higher at 10-20% Saturday and Sunday, but
not enough to dispel fire weather concerns. Winds are SW 15-25 mph
gusting to 30-40 mph Friday and Saturday, then 10-20 mph gusting to
35 mph on Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Friday for AZZ006.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ111-113-114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff