952
FXUS65 KFGZ 222328
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
428 PM MST Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase over
the next severals days. Scattered to widespread storms, some with
heavy rain and localized flash flooding, are expected each day.
A gradual cooling trend begins this weekend with temperatures
dropping to below average by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Four Corners High now in place will transport deep
moisture into the state over the next few days. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected and with the deeper moisture moving
in, Flash Flooding will be a concern, mainly on burn scar areas
from the recent fires on the Kaibab Plateau. For now we`ve issued
a Flash Flood Watch for Kaibab Plateau, Grand Canyon NP and Marble
canyon areas, including the Dragon Bravo and White Sage burn
scars from 11am Saturday through 8pm Monday. We`ll continue to
monitor things and see if other areas need additional watches. For
anyone doing any outdoor activities this weekend, be aware of
your surroundings and plan accordingly.

As far as temperatures are concerned, they will be trending
downward as the weekend progresses, going from well above late
August averages today to below late August averages by Tuesday.
With that said, the Excessive Heat Warning in the lower elevations
of the Grand Canyon will be allowed to expire tonight and will not
be extended.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 23/00Z through Sunday 24/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are forecast. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA with local MVFR
conditions possible through 06Z, then activity dissipating to
isolated -SHRA. Winds generally light and variable, except gusty
and erratic near -TSRA. Outflow winds could briefly produce winds
between 20-30 kts. A similar round of SHRA/TSRA starting midday
Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 24/00Z through Tuesday 26/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, except localized MVFR conditions near SHRA/TSRA.
Numerous SHRA/TSRA expected daily between 18Z and 06Z across most
of northern Arizona. Winds light and variable, except gusty and
erratic near thunderstorms. Outflow winds could briefly produce
winds between 20-30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Very warm conditions will
continue, although temperatures will trend downward each day as
storm activity picks up. Expect storms to form over higher terrain
and move west or southwest each afternoon, becoming more showery at
night. Minimum relative humidity values will still drop below 15
percent northeast of the Mogollon Rim Friday, but all locations will
be above 15 percent by Saturday. Winds will generally be terrain or
outflow driven.

Sunday through Tuesday...Expect an active Monsoon period for these
days, with temperatures continuing to trend downward and relative
humidity trending upward. Winds will generally be terrain or outflow
driven.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Monday evening for
AZZ004>006.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff