338
FXUS65 KFGZ 250700
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1200 AM MST Sun Oct 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger into
this afternoon across the Four Corners region, with cool and dry
conditions otherwise expected. Gradually warmer and dry conditions
continue through at least the middle of the coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through this morning...Patchy fog is expected across
the higher terrain through early this morning, with some potential
for freezing fog in the usual colder locations. Therefore, some
untreated and elevated surfaces could be slick early this morning.

This afternoon...A cut-off low is currently spinning over northern
Arizona and southern Utah. As the low continues to lift northeastward,
drier air is ushered back into much of northern Arizona. A few
isolated wrap-around showers and possibly a thunderstorm are
expected later this afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain of
northeastern Arizona. While a few brief heavy downpours could be
possible, much of the rainfall looks to be light.

Monday through Saturday...As the closed-low lifts into Colorado,
weak ridging, or even quasi-zonal flow looks to build into the
southwest. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions look to
prevail through Thursday.

A deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest looks to breakdown
this pattern near the end of next week. Cooler temperatures and a
return of precipitation look probable near the end of the week as a
result.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 25/06Z through Monday 26/06Z...Primarily VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA near the AZ-UT border until 08Z, then
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA mostly northeast of a KPGA-KRQE line from 19Z-02Z.
Localized MVFR-IFR conditions could develop in low ceilings/fog
through the morning. Winds VRB at 5-15 kts through the period.

OUTLOOK...Monday 26/06Z through Wednesday 28/06Z...VFR conditions.
VRB winds 5-10 kts on Monday, then SW 5-15 kts on Tuesday. Light
and VRB or terrain driven during the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Mainly dry conditions, outside of
a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Four
Corners this afternoon. Otherwise, cool with variable winds 5-10 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions with gradually warming
temperatures. Daytime winds south/southwest 5-15 mph, increasing 10-
20 mph by Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff