107
FXUS65 KFGZ 060518
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1018 PM MST Fri Jun 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue
through much of the next week. Temperatures cool slightly over the
weekend but expect increasing southwest winds each day with elevated
fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak ridge will remain across the region on Saturday
before a trough starts to drop down from the north which will
dominate our weather through at least the middle of next week. The
gradient will begin to tighten up on Saturday with increasing
southwest winds, mainly across western portions of the forecast
area. With the dry conditions in place we will see critical fire
weather conditions across western Coconino county and portions of
Yavapai county on Saturday. The trough will also bring some slightly
cooler temperatures which will bring us back down near normal
through the week.

Winds will increase on Sunday with more widespread fire weather
concerns expected. Winds on Sunday may near Wind Advisory levels so
something to keep an eye on for your weekend forecast.

Winds remain breezy through at least mid-week across the state.
Tuesday looks to be the windiest day of the week so another day to
keep an eye on. Conditions will remain near-critical to critical
through at least Tuesday, before the trough finally starts to lift
to the north and we the gradient weakens across the region.

A few outside chances for some showers towards the NM border on
Tuesday but confidence is low that we will see much if anything
reach the ground due to the very dry conditions in place.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 06/06Z through Sunday 07/06Z...VFR conditions.
Winds S-W 5-10 kts through 16Z, then becoming W/SW 10-20 kts with
gusts 25-35 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 07/06Z through Tuesday 09/06Z...VFR conditions.
Daytime winds S/SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts each day,
subsiding to 5-15 kts overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Warm and dry conditions
persist with increasing winds. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts
30-35 mph Saturday, with gusts increasing to 35-45 mph on Sunday.
Minimum RH 5-15%. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions
Saturday with a Red Flag Warning issued for the northwest zones. The
Red Flag Warning expands to include most of northern and central
Arizona on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm, dry, and windy conditions persist.
Critical to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
Monday and Tuesday, with lower chances on Wednesday as winds
decrease slightly. Winds southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 35-40 mph
Monday and Tuesday, with gusts decreasing to 30-35 mph Wednesday.
Minimum RH values 5-15%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Saturday for AZZ104-106-107-115.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Sunday for AZZ104>116-139-140.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
for AZZ104>117-138>140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff