589
FXUS65 KFGZ 070530
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1030 PM MST Sun Sep 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
today across the area, with scattered activity in northwest
Arizona and the White Mountains. Storm activity will be confined
to far eastern Arizona Monday before spreading back westward
through next week. Temperatures will be close to normal through
Labor Day, warming above normal by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Sub-tropical moisture has surged northward
as a result of Hurricane Marie (~800 miles W of the tip of the
Baja California peninsula). A band of showers and embedded
thunderstorms has moved northward through northern Arizona at the
leading edge of the moisture surge, largely driven by large-scale
ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave. As the shortwave ejects
off the Pacific, the band begins will stall through the remainder
of the day. Much of the latest hi-res guidance shows it stalling
over northwestern Arizona, largely to the west of our CWA, just
brushing northwestern Coconino County. Elsewhere, mainly dry
conditions are expected, outside of a few isolated showers an
thunderstorms along the higher terrain. Rainfall amounts so far
this morning have been fairly minimal, with only a few hundredths
to a couple tenths in the steadier areas of precipitation.
Therefore, the threat for any strong thunderstorms and flash
flooding remains low.

Monday and Tuesday...With moisture still in place, a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible again Monday. Activity
looks to however be fairly minimal, as warming aloft will limit the
potential for vertical motion. Drier surface conditions will also
limit how much rain will actually reach the ground.

Coverage for Monday looks to be mainly focused across the eastern
Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and the Chuska Mountains. A similar
trend looks to follow suit into Tuesday, through potentially
expanding coverage along the remainder of the Mogollon Rim.

Wednesday through Saturday...High pressure over the central US
begins to retrograde back over the southwest over the second-half of
the week. Much of the EPS, GEFS, and CMCE members have PWATs
remaining high enough for continued monsoonal activity through at
least the end of the work week; albeit a slight downward trend. Thus,
continued daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
seems reasonable. Much of the activity should be fairly isolated to
scattered in nature, and most numerous over the higher terrain.
Temperatures also look to gradually climb each day, as heights
gradually rise over Arizona.

Thereafter, there remains some uncertainty as a trough may descend
through the Great Basin and suppress some of the moisture to the
south. A strengthening ridge behind the trough over Nevada may also
further suppress upward motion, while also ushering in drier air from
the north.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 07/06Z through Tuesday 09/06Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA and BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 10-12kft AGL for
the rest of the night and much of Monday. Sfc winds generally light
overnight and then mainly W-SW10-20kts AFT 18Z-20Z Monday. Winds may
vary quite a bit, from NW through SW, but will average westerly. SCT
SHRA/-TSRA AFT 18Z-20Z Monday, mainly over portions of southern
Navajo and Apache counties.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/06Z through Thursday 10/06Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/-TSRA each day, mainly in the afternoon
hours and favoring southern Navajo and Apache counties. Showers and
thunderstorms may push as far west as the I-17 corridor and eastern
Yavapai County by Wednesday. Sfc winds are not anticipated to affect
flight operations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...On Monday, isolated to
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be confined to
the higher terrain in the eastern third of Arizona. By Tuesday
afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances begin to move westward
along the Mogollon Rim with continued chances over the mountains of
eastern Arizona. High temperatures near normal Monday warming to
about 5 degrees above average Tuesday. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph with
gusts to 25 mph each afternoon, light and variable or terrain driven
overnight. Minimum RH`s each afternoon ranging from 15% in the lower
deserts to 30-40% in the mountains.

Wednesday through Friday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms
remain primarily over the higher terrain of the Rim and White
Mountains each day. Temperatures warming to 5-10 degrees above
normal. Winds S-SW 5-15 mph each day, light and variable or terrain
driven overnight.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff