601
FXUS65 KFGZ 011059
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
359 AM MST Thu Oct 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Drier and warmer conditions will move in through the
end of the week and weekend following the exit of the low pressure
system that brought showers/storms earlier this week. High
pressure looks to dominate the region through the next week or so,
but we could see a brief short-wave bring isolated showers to the
higher terrain next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The low pressure system that helped funnel in
moisture over the last few days is currently centered over the NE
corner of New Mexico. With this disturbance exiting the region,
high pressure looks to build over the Southwest for the next
several days. This change in the synoptic pattern will allow for
temperatures to gradually warm and drier conditions to return.
Expect daytime highs to climb near normal for this time of year
and for minimum RH values to steadily drop through the forecast
period. Before we dry out though, current elevated dew points
could lead to some overnight/early morning fog across the High
Country. If areas do see this first thing in the morning,
everything should burn off fairly quickly as daytime heating kicks
in.

Although model guidance is in agreement with high pressure
lingering over much of the Western US through next week, there is
some discrepancies on whether or not a short-wave will clip the
eastern part of the state, and create a few isolated
showers/storms across the higher terrain. Confidence is very low
at this time on whether or not we`ll see the return of
precipitation, so for now, expect mostly dry conditions for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 01/12Z through Friday 02/12Z...VFR conditions
expected through the period, but brief fog/low clouds possible
through 15Z across higher terrain. N-NE winds 5-10 kts expected
this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 02/12Z through Sunday 04/12Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the period. Expect easterly winds 5-15 kts each
afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday through Friday...Expect warmer temperatures
and drier conditions through the end of the week. Look for north
through east winds 5-15 mph each afternoon, becoming light/variable
overnight.

Saturday through Monday...Near normal temperatures forecast through
the weekend and into next week, along with mostly dry conditions. A
very slight chance of showers possible across the White Mountains on
Monday, but confidence is low. Look for easterly winds 10-20 mph
Saturday and Sunday afternoon, becoming light and variable by Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff