495
FXUS65 KFGZ 141049
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
349 AM MST Fri Aug 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures are expected again today, along
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Flash
flooding will be possible this afternoon across portions of
northwestern Arizona. Gradually warmer temperatures and more
isolated coverage of storms is expected through the weekend into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Ahead of an approaching trough, deep monsoonal
moisture will be advected northward along the Colorado River Valley.
06Z RAP guidance forecasts around 1.00-1.20 inches of PWAT across
much of western Arizona, with around 0.80-1.00 inches elsewhere.
While 15-25 kt storm motions may limit the overall residency time
of a single storm, the potential for training storms will largely
negate this. Therefore, flash flooding will be the primary threat
today. The greatest risk looks to be largely across northwest
Arizona, where coverage of storms (and potential for training)
will be the greatest. HREF PMM for >1" of rain in 3 hours largely
pin point this area as well. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
portions of northwestern Arizona through this evening for this
threat.

In addition to the flash flood threat, a few strong to severe storms
can not be totally given 0-6 km shear of around 25-35 kts per the
06Z RAP. Instability may be limited by cloud coverage this morning,
however any areas that remain fairly clear through the morning and
early afternoon will be at the greatest risk for stronger storms.
Gusty outflow winds and large hail will be the main hazards from any
severe storms.

Otherwise, much cooler temperatures are forecast today given the
increase in cloud cover. Afternoon highs look to be around 5-10F
below normal for this time of year.

Saturday and Sunday...The aforementioned trough lingers across the
west on Saturday, before lifting by Sunday. The center of the high
pressure remains pushed to the east, over the Ark-La-Tex region.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms begins to tick downwards
through the weekend. For Saturday, the isolated to scattered storms
look possible from the Mogollon Rim and northward. By Sunday, the
focus looks to shift further east, with the best chances across the
higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Flash flooding will remain the
main concern through the weekend, but a couple stronger storms will
be possible given the influence of the trough still. Outside of
storms, slightly warmer, but still cool temperatures remain over
northern Arizona with less and less cloud cover expected each day.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure slowly begins to retrograde
and strengthen over the southwest through the coming week. Warming
temperatures ensue across northern Arizona as a result, with
afternoon highs returning to near-normal to slightly (~5F) above
normal.

With monsoonal moisture still in place, precipitation chances look
to still continue into the coming week. However, as the ridge
strengthens, afternoon convection will become suppressed. Therefore,
much of the activity looks to be isolated in nature, and largely
focused on the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 14/12Z through Saturday 15/12Z...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
from east of KCMR to KGCN through 16Z. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA expected
19Z to 03Z, with the greatest coverage INVOF a KGCN-KPGA line. SHRA
may linger through 07Z/08Z INVOF KGCN/KPGA. Periods of IFR/MVFR
possible within +TS. Otherwise, VFR conditions with W/SW winds 5-10
kts, becoming light and VRB after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 15/12Z through Monday 17/12Z...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
each day from 19Z to 03Z, mainly over the higher terrain. Periods of
IFR and gusty outflow winds possible in and around TS. Otherwise,
VFR conditions with daytime winds W/SW winds 5-10 kts, becoming
light and VRB overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Cooler. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms across northwest Arizona, generally scattered for the
remainder of the area. Coverage on Saturday becoming isolated to
scattered from the Mogollon Rim and northward. Outside of storms,
winds generally southwest/west 5-10 mph.

Sunday through Tuesday...Gradually turning warmer. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms each day, especially over the higher terrain and
across eastern Arizona. Winds light and variable on Sunday, becoming
south through west 5-10 mph on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning through this
evening for AZZ004>006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff