128
FXUS65 KFGZ 072356
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
456 PM MST Sun Sep 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms across the higher
terrain today with dry conditions for the start of the work week.
Fall-like weather is expected to set in midweek with breezy and
cooler weather and a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains in place over Arizona today,
keeping temperatures fairly typical for this time of year. The 18Z
FGZ RAOB shows a notable decrease in PWAT today (0.43") as drier
air aloft sets in. Some mid-level capping also looks to have
developed, further limiting precipitation development. Nevertheless,
some linger moisture in the low-levels may be just enough for a
couple isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon.
Any activity that does develop will be minimal, with some brief
heavy downpours and some gusty winds being the main threats.

Heights begin to fall through the upcoming week as a trough begins
to eject off the Pacific and move into the Great Basin. Temperatures
look to gradually cool by a degree or two each day through the
remainder of the forecast period. Winds also look to increase
through the period, likely peaking on Wednesday and Thursday as the
pressure gradient tightens over Arizona. Some moisture does look to
linger, thus, chances for isolated showers and storms look to
remain, especially across eastern Arizona through Thursday or
Friday. By the end of the week, behind the trough, much drier air
looks to set in. Ensemble guidance shows a significant decrease in
PWATs over the weekend, resulting in dry conditions for the vast
majority of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 08/00Z through Tuesday 09/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are forecast. Isolated SHRA/TSRA through around 02Z
this evening, mainly along/south of a KFLG-KSJN line. Gusty and
erratic winds 25-35 kts in and near SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise,
SW to W winds 10-15 kts into the early evening, becoming light
and variable overnight. An isolated -SHRA or -TSRA possible in
southern Yavapai County and the White Mountains on Monday
afternoon with less than 10% areal coverage. SW to W winds 10-20
kts after 18Z Monday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/00Z through Thursday 11/00Z...VFR conditions
expected. Daytime SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts Tuesday,
increasing to 15-20 kts gusting 30-35 kts Wednesday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Mainly dry and warmer. A
stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible over the White
Mountains. Light southwest winds at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph on
Monday will strengthen to 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph on Tuesday.
Minimum RH values 15-30% each day.

Wednesday through Friday...A passing weather disturbance will result
in a slight moisture increase and stronger winds. Look for a return
of isolated showers and thunderstorms primarily east of a Payson to
Page line. South to southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30
mph are forecast on Wednesday and Thursday then diminishing to 5-15
mph gusting to 20 mph on Friday. Turning a bit cooler.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff