174
FXUS65 KFGZ 301640
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
940 AM MST Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain chances will be limited mainly to the White
Mountains region this weekend, with otherwise dry and seasonable
weather expected across northern Arizona. Rain and thunderstorm
chances will gradually increase next week with an expected return
of monsoon moisture, especially by the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture has retreated to the south with
mainly drying conditions expected this weekend. The exception is
over the White Mountains region, which will continue to see daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms, more so on Sunday. An
isolated shower can`t be ruled out along the Mogollon Rim as
well. Large scale high pressure is centered over the Great Basin
this morning and will gradually shift eastward over the coming
days. We can expect a mostly dry pattern through the holiday
weekend and into early next week with near average temperatures
for this time of year.

As the ridge amplifies and builds northward next week, moisture
across southern Arizona begins to slide into northern Arizona
allowing for a slight increase in storm chances beginning Monday.
A more active pattern is forecast in the Tropical Pacific next
week, and potential tropical cyclone activity near the Baja
Peninsula could help spur a Gulf surge of moisture late in the
week. Blended model guidance (NBM) this morning supports the
increasing precipitation chances from Wednesday onward with a
corresponding cooling trend into next weekend. Given this pattern
still being 5+ days out, our confidence is low to moderate at this
time, but something we will be keeping an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 30/18Z through Sunday 31/18Z...VFR conditions
are expected. An isolated mountain -SHRA/-TSRA is possible this
afternoon. Winds N-NE around 5-15 kts daytime, light and variable
or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 31/18Z through Tuesday 02/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA in the White
Mountains on Sunday will spread west to areas along and south of
the Mogollon Rim Monday afternoon. Brief MVFR conditions are
possible along with gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, N-NE winds
5-15 kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...An isolated shower or
thunderstorm is possible along the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains this weekend. Coverage increases over the White
Mountains on Sunday. Otherwise, expect seasonal temperatures with minimum
RH in the 15-30% range Saturday, decreasing to 10-25% on Sunday.
Outside of any shower activity, winds will be northwest through
northeast around 5-15 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Rain and thunderstorm chances slowly
begin to increase each day as high pressure builds northward.
Expect continued seasonal temperatures and daytime humidity
dropping to 10-25%. Winds will remain light each day at less than
10 mph, varying in direction.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff