845
FXUS65 KFGZ 290847
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
147 AM MST Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Slight chances for precipitation will stick around
for today, before moisture becomes limited over the White
Mountains and eastern Rim this weekend. High pressure looks to
build over the Southwest next week, which could bring back
additional showers/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Light showers are noted across portions of northern
Arizona this evening and will likely continue through the
overnight and early morning hours. This last wave of moisture is
from remnants of Tropical Storm Juliette. We could see a few left
over showers/storms this afternoon, but activity will be much
quieter than we`ve seen over the last several days.

Over the weekend, moisture will continue to become limited as an
area of high pressure generally flattens across the region. There
will still be slight chances for showers/storms across the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, but elsewhere will be
dry. During this timeframe we will also see temperatures trend
upward a few degrees, landing near normal for this time of year.

Moving toward the Labor Day holiday and next week, moisture
gradually should expand westward due to high pressure beginning to
build across the Southwest. Model guidance does not suggest this
ridge centering itself over the Four Corners, but we`ll still be
under a synoptic flow that should bring sufficient moisture back
to northern Arizona. For now, our forecast (which is heavily
following the NBM) shows precipitation chances greatest along and
south of a Fredonia- Window Rock line by mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 29/06Z through Saturday 30/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions and WDSPRD CIGS from 10-12kft AGL through 14Z-18Z Friday.
CIGS becoming more scattered by Friday afternoon. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA
possible most locations, but especially N and NW of KFLG during the
same time period. Then, SCT -SHRA/-TSRA INVOF the White Mtns AFT 19Z
Friday. Sfc winds not expected to affect flight operations.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 30/06Z through Monday 01/06Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/-TSRA from 19Z-02Z each day may produce
brief MVFR. Convective activity primarily INVOF the White Mtns, but
may spread NE toward the KFLG terminal. Away from any convective
gust activity, sfc winds are not expected to affect flight
operations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected today, becoming more isolated over the
White Mountains and eastern Rim on Saturday. Temperatures will also
warm up through the weekend. Look for minimum RH values between 20-
40% on Friday, dipping to 15-35% on Saturday. Expect westerly winds
5-15 mph this afternoon, becoming more variable on Saturday. Winds
near showers/storms could be gusty/erratic.

Sunday through Tuesday...Precipitation chances forecast each day,
initially over the White Mountains and eastern Rim and expanding
westward through the beginning of the week. Minimum RH values
generally between 10-20% north of I-40, and between 15-30% south of
I-40. Outside of storm driven winds, expect variable winds 5-15
mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff