844
FXUS65 KFGZ 020550 CCA
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1050 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread rainfall continues to fall across northern
Arizona. The heaviest rainfall is mainly along and south of the
Mogollon Rim, but rain is spreading northward across the Navajo
Nation and the Kaibab Plateau. There have been several reports of
flooding/flash flooding, especially along and south of the rim,
and will continue to be possible across the entire region through
this afternoon. Rain should start to decrease this evening and
through the overnight hours. This continues to be a serious
situation. Stay away from waterways, and if you come to a flooded
road, turn around, don`t drown.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Since midnight, rain gauge and radar data suggest a
widespread area 2 to 4 inches of rain have fallen across and
south of the Mogollon Rim, with some stream gauges exceeding
record stage heights. There have been several reports of
flooding/flash flooding, especially along and south of the Rim.
Rain has been spreading northward across the Navajo Nation and the
Kaibab Plateau, and while rainfall totals are expected to be
lower north of the Mogollon Rim, flooding/flash flooding is still
possible through this afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough
moves northeast into the Southwest, latest hi-res models and
mesoanalysis suggest a transition from widespread rain, to more
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms pattern this
afternoon by 3 to 4 pm, allowing for some breaks in rain, but
keeping the risk for periods of heavy rainfall across northern
Arizona through is afternoon and early evening hours. The risk for
strong or severe thunderstorms is low due to limited instability
and moisture helping to prevent low and mid-level lapse rates from
steeping. However, cannot rule out some strong gusts near
thunderstorms. After 8pm MST, shower and thunderstorm activity
should be on the decrease as the mid-level trough starts to push
off to the east and drier air follows in the wake of a frontal
passage. The Flood Watch remains in effect through late tonight as
water will continue to be draining through the washes, stream,
and river basins, keeping waters levels high. River flooding may
continue to be an issue through Monday and at least Tuesday.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 11 PM MST for the Little
Colorado River Valley, Eastern Mogollon Rim, and White Mountains
were gusts as high as 40-50 mph are possible. Peak wind gusts will
decrease overnight, but gusts around 30 mph will be possible with
the frontal passage after 11 pm Monday to 8am Tuesday. There is
also potential for snow mostly above 7500-8000 ft elevation before
things fully dry out on Sunday night. The main area of concern is
the Kaibab Plateau where 1-2 inches of snow are possible. A
dusting of snow will also be possible for the higher elevation
locations around the Flagstaff area. Fully dry conditions are
expected by Monday afternoon and through the week as ridging
dominates. Another trough will brush past Arizona on Wednesday,
but this looks to remain mostly dry at this time

There is also potential for snow mostly above 7200-7800 ft
elevation before things fully dry out tonight. The main area of
concern is the Kaibab Plateau where 1-2 inches of snow are
possible. A dusting of snow will also be possible for the higher
elevation locations around the Flagstaff area, with potentially
around 1 inch near the top of the San Francisco Peaks. Fully dry
conditions are expected by late Monday morning and through the
week as ridging dominates. Another trough will brush past Arizona
around Wednesday or early Thursday, but this looks to remain
mostly dry at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 02/06Z through Tuesday 03/06Z...Showers and
storms are eroding and exiting from most of the region with
lingering shower activity expected for KGCN and KPGA into the late
night. Lower clouds will scatter and lift as the rain chances exit
the vicinities of the TAF sites, but lower clouds look to linger
along higher peaks through the night. Skies clear into the morning.
Winds for most areas reduce into the late night and early morning,
with KPGA keeping breezy west to northwest winds until the
afternoon. Winds across the region look to stay light Monday
afternoon through the remainer of the TAF period

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 03/06Z through Thursday 05/06Z...VFR continues.
Passing high clouds are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning
with light winds expected through the next morning and wind
directions being determined my more localized effects rather than
regional flow. Winds look to turn westerly Wednesday morning but
remain light to moderate, and then turn northerly later that day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Widespread rainfall will
continue today, eventually decreasing in coverage by the late
evening. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible. Heavy
accumulations are expected especially along/south of the Rim.
Threats of flooding and flash flooding will be exacerbated by the
already very saturated ground conditions. Strong winds are also
expected. Winds are southwest 15-25 mph gusting up to 30-40 mph
this morning, then gusts as high as 50 mph possible across eastern
AZ this afternoon. Winds turn more westerly and gradually
diminish through Sunday night, becoming northwest 10-20 mph on
Monday afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...A drier weather pattern is expected
through this period, with lingering flooding impacts possible. Winds
are easterly 5-15 mph on Tuesday, turning westerly 10-20 mph on
Wednesday, then light and variable on Thursday. Minimum RH above 30-
50% through the period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ004>018-037>040.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ012>014-016-
017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schank
AVIATION...NWS VEF Murdock
FIRE WEATHER...Schank

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff