822
FXUS65 KFGZ 061751
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1051 AM MST Sat Jun 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures cool slightly over the weekend and into
early next week to near seasonal averages, however things remain
very dry with increasing southwest winds and elevated fire
weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Northern Arizona will be at the base end of a trough
starting today and lasting through a good portion of the week. The
low pressure systems associated with this trough remain well to
our north as does their moisture. What we will get is a
cooling trend toward average early June temperatures, but the
southwesterly flow aloft will keep the airmass dry and with a
tightening pressure gradient, strong southwesterly winds 15-30
mph with gusts 35-45 mph. Needless to say this is bad news for
fire weather and a Red Flag Warning issued for today has been
expanded from our northwest zones to include the western Mogollon
Rim. Sunday`s Red Flag Warning will be even more widespread with a
good chunk of northern Arizona falling under it. This looks to
continue into Monday and Tuesday as well and a Fire Weather Watch
for most of northern Arizona has been issued.

By the middle to the end of the week the long wave troughing
begins to move east and it looks like the area gets under a more
zonal flow aloft. This will hopefully bring the winds down and get
us away from the critical fire weather conditions that occupy the
first half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 06/18Z through Sunday 07/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. Winds are SW-W 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts. Overnight
winds are S-SW 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 07/18Z through Tuesday 09/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. Winds are SW 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts on Sunday then
15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts on Monday. Winds are generally S-SW
5-15 kts during the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Warm and dry conditions persist
with increasing winds. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35
mph Saturday, with gusts increasing to 35-45 mph on Sunday. Minimum
RH 5-15%. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions today
with a Red Flag Warning issued for the northwest zones and western
Mogollon Rim. The Red Flag Warning expands to include most of
northern and central Arizona on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm, dry, and windy conditions persist.
Critical to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
Monday and Tuesday and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most
of northern Arizona for those time periods. Winds southwest 15-25
mph with gusts 35-40 mph Monday and Tuesday, with gusts decreasing
to 30-35 mph Wednesday. Minimum RH values 5-15%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ104-106-107-115.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Sunday for AZZ104>116-139-140.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
for AZZ104>117-138>140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff