489
FXUS65 KFGZ 101120
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 AM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures and scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected through much of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will settle over the Four Corners region
today, then pushes slightly to the east this week. This high will be
in a very favorable position for increases monsoon activity as
moisture advects into the region on the strengthening southeasterly
flow.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue early this morning
across the region as remnant outflows gradually move through the
area. While these overnight storms are not expected to be severe,
some brief heavy rain and strong, gusty winds will be possible as
the move off to the west/northwest through daybreak.

For today, moisture will continue to increase across the region and
we will see scattered to widespread showers develop. With the high
in place over the Four Corners and the moisture surging into the
region, we will see cooler temperatures across the area, and no heat
headlines are expected for at least the next several day. Storms are
expected to initiate across the higher terrain by early afternoon,
with a west to northwest motion. The increase in moisture will
result in PWATs between 1.00-1.50", and storms will be capable of
producing heavy/very heavy rainfall with flash flooding becoming a
primary concern. With the activity early this morning, we may have
more debris cloud coverage which in turn may delay storm initiation
into this afternoon.

The active monsoon looks to continue through much of the week with
daily scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain
leading to flash flooding will be the main hazard of concern through
the week. Several models are pointing to a disturbance pushing up
from Sonora which may help to keep convection going during eh
overnight periods. By Friday, some dry air will start to push into
the region. However, we do not fully dry out and while it may not be
as active there will still be showers and thunderstorms around.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 10/12Z through Tuesday 11/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected outside of thunderstorms. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA,
becoming SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA after 19Z, with the greatest storm
activity along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSJN line. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess of 40 kts are
possible in and around +TS. Storm activity is forecast to decrease
after 03Z, with ISO -SHRA/-TSRA overnight. Outside of storms,
expect W-SW winds 5-15 kts, becoming light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/12Z through Thursday 13/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected outside of thunderstorms. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA
each day from 19Z-03Z, especially over the higher terrain. Brief
MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess of 40 kts
possible in and around +TS. Outside of storms, expect W-SW winds
5-15 kts, becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Cooler temperatures with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Greatest coverage across the
higher terrain. Stronger storms may contain heavy rain, hail, and
gusty/erratic winds. Outside of storms, expect variable winds around
5-15 mph.

Wednesday through Friday...Below normal temperatures with scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. Outside of storms,
expect west to southwest winds around 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff