873
FXUS65 KFGZ 012003
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
103 PM MST Thu Oct 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Drier and warmer conditions will move in through the
end of the week and weekend as high pressure looks to dominate
the region through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The monsoon is over and a ridge of high pressure
has built into the region. This will bring dry conditions with
temperatures at or slightly above average during the day and
seasonably cool at night through the weekend.

Models suggest the possibility of the ridge being briefly
suppressed by a shortwave moving through the area. This could
bring a few showers to the higher elevations Monday and Tuesday
afternoon but each run has been showing the chances of this
occurring trending downward so confidence is low on this scenario.

By the middle to the end of next week high pressure rebounds into
an even stronger ridge with heights of 588-591dm in the center.
This will lead to continued dry conditions with temperatures
warming further, up to 5-10 degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 01/18Z through Friday 02/18Z...VFR conditions
with N/NE winds 5-15 kts through 03Z. Locally breezy winds NE winds
remain downwind of the terrain 03Z-15Z, otherwise becoming light.

OUTLOOK...Friday 02/18Z through Sunday 04/18Z...VFR conditions.
Daytime winds NE-SE 5-15 kts, remaining locally breezy downwind of
the terrain overnight, otherwise light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Dry conditions with seasonable
temperatures. Winds northeast through southeast 5-15 mph each
afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly dry conditions and continued near
normal temperatures. Slight chance for isolated showers Monday and
Tuesday across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Winds
east/southeast 5-10 mph on Sunday and Monday, becoming light and
variable on Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff