397
FXUS65 KFGZ 141043
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 AM MST Mon Sep 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...An active pattern will remain in place through the end
of the week. Greatest coverage for showers/storms look to be
during the afternoon/early evening hours each day, but we cannot
rule out the potential for overnight activity. Otherwise, expect
seasonable daytime highs and breezy southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Shortwave is moving through the western part of the
state right now. Some early morning storms are initiating right
now and more will as the day progresses as there`s still plenty of
monsoon moisture across the state for this wave to utilize. Since
the shortwave is in the western part of the state already, the
main focus for activity will be the eastern half of the state,
mainly east of Interstate 17 and US-89. Once again the main
threats from these showers/storms will be heavy rain and isolated
flash flooding as well as the potential for a few of these storms
to reach severe levels with strong downburst winds and some
quarter sized hail. Storms could potentially last into the
nighttime hours tonight into Tuesday morning.

The rest of the week will remain pretty active as troughing over
the West Coast keeps rotating shortwaves across the area that
will be able to feed off the monsoon moisture in place. Coverage
will be dependent on how far east the trough sets up as well as
the activity from the previous day which could potentially work
the atmosphere over for the following day. So will have to go with
a general broad brush of shower and thunderstorm chances lasting
through the week with better specifics the day of the event after
seeing what the previous day did. The hazards mentioned in the
previous paragraph will certainly be possible each day.

Friday afternoon into the weekend, it looks like the West Coast
trough advances eastward through the weekend, allowing a ridge to
build to our west and put us under a northwest flow aloft. If
this scenario takes place, the monsoon moisture will be shoved out
of the state and we`ll be in a dry pattern this weekend into next
week. It`s a bit early to say this is the end of the monsoon for
the year but it definitely will put a big pause to it if this does
in fact pan out.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 14/12Z through Tuesday 15/12Z...Mainly VFR, but
MVFR conditions possible near heavier thunderstorms. Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to move across the area this
morning, with another round of showers and thunderstorms
developing after 18-21Z. Best storm chances this afternoon will
be east of Interstate 17 and US-89. Storms could persist into the
nighttime hours. Daytime winds S-SW 10-15kts, gusts 20-25kts.
Light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic
winds near and ahead of thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 15/12Z through Thursday 17/12Z...VFR conditions
with MVFR conditions possible near heavier thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each
afternoon after 18Z. Some isolated showers are thunderstorms are
possible into the nighttime hours. Gusty and erratic winds near
and ahead of thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms, daytime
winds S-SW 10-15kts, gusts to 20kts. Light and variable or terrain
driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist into Sunday evening, especially over
Yavapai and Coconino counties. Gradual clearing overnight, but
redevelopment may occur early Monday morning as outflows approach
from the south. The chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
Monday and Tuesday, but the focus shifts eastward, due to a trough
passing to our north. Mainly daytime south through southwest winds
from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph, can be expected each day.
Temperatures will remain right around normal.

Wednesday through Friday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue, possibly becoming more widespread during this time frame.
Daytime southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff