666
FXUS65 KFGZ 241735
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1035 AM MST Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue
through much of the week, with activity becoming more focused over
eastern Arizona towards the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Taking a look around the CWA, moisture has increased
yet again today, as compared to yesterday. Surface dew points are
largely in the 50s, to near 60 and PW values range from 0.80" over
the northeastern zones, to near 1.5" in our southern zones. The
higher PW values and more robust CAPE are once again located in
Yavapai County and southern Coconino County.

The 12Z sounding from KFGZ indicates an earlier convective start is
possible today, especially in areas where debris cloud has already
dissipated. We expect an active day today, especially due to storms
forming and propagating W/SW from the San Francisco Peaks or just
west of the San Francisco Peaks, as well as the Bradshaw and
northwestern Black Mountains.

Primary threats will be heavy rain and small hail, lack of shear and
notable storm motion should limit larger hail potential.

Similar conditions persist Tuesday and even into Wednesday. before
the mid-levels dry toward the end of the week. This will likely
limit storms to our eastern zones Thursday and Friday, but moisture
will creep back westward as early as the weekend, due to the ridge
reestablishing position heading into next week.

Current temperature forecasts, especially through Tuesday, seem very
high compared to guidance. Will be working on this with an early
daily package/update.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 24/18Z through Tuesday 25/18Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions. From 19Z-03Z, SCT to
NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will produce localized MVFR/IFR.
Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/18Z through Thursday 27/18Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions. 19Z-03Z each day, SCT
to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will produce localized MVFR/IFR.
Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow. Storm
activity shifts primarily east of the I-17 corridor by Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are once again expected Monday and Tuesday. Afternoon
winds will mainly be driven by outflows. Stronger storms will bring
heavy rainfall, small hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. Min
RHs ranging from 25 to 45 percent, with good overnight recoveries.

Wednesday through Friday...Afternoon storm chances persist, but
coverage becomes more isolated and moves into the eastern zones by
Thursday and Friday. Light southwest winds Wednesday (outside of
storms), increasing Thursday and Friday to 10 to 15 mph with gusts
from 20 to 30 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...RKR/Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff