367
FXUS65 KFGZ 071119
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
419 AM MST Mon Sep 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Storm activity will be confined to far eastern
Arizona today before spreading back westward through the week.
Temperatures will be close to normal through Labor Day, warming
to above normal by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft was centered over north Texas
with a strong trough centered over the Pacific Northwest early
Monday morning.

For today...A shortwave disturbance moving through the Pacific
Northwest trough will brush Arizona then move to the northeast
through the day. The net effect of this feature will be to deliver
a drier air mass to most of northern Arizona. The only areas that
will avoid this drying will be the eastern Mogollon Rim, White
Mountains and to some degree the Chuska Mountains. Most areas
will see partly to mostly cloud skies as mid to upper level
moisture streams across the area but low chances for any
precipitation. Substantial low-level moisture will be confined to
the eastern portions of the forecast area.

From Tuesday into Thursday...High pressure will gradually build
back over Arizona from the east. Monsoon moisture will continue
to linger and even gradually increase through this period. As a
result, the shower and thunderstorm threat will continue across
the high terrain of eastern Arizona but gradually spread westward
along the Mogollon Rim. Any heavy rain potential is expected to
remain confined to the White Mountains region. Activity will
continue to be focused in the afternoon and evening. Look for
warmer temperatures as the high builds over northern Arizona with
mountain temperatures climbing to the upper 70s to mid 80s and 95
to 105 at lower elevations.

Looking at Friday onward...Additional troughing enters the western
states pushing the high center to the east. It isn`t clear that
this next trough will sweep monsoon moisture away. In fact, most
models suggest monsoon moisture will interact with disturbances
moving through the western trough modulated to some degree by
daytime heating. We will have to wait and see on this one because
if the trough comes in stronger than models currently show drying
will likely follow. On the other hand, if trough energy remains on
the northern periphery of the low-level monsoon moisture it could
remain unsettled, most likely day and night.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 07/12Z through Tuesday 08/12Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA with brief MVFR
conditions/gusty winds 18Z through 02Z south of a KSOW-KSJN.
Elsewhere, isolated activity. Winds generally northwest to
southwest 10-20 kts between 18Z-02Z, light and variable the
remainder of the time.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 08/12Z through Thursday 10/12Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA each day, mainly in
the afternoon hours along and south of a KFLG-KRQE line. Showers
and thunderstorms may push as far west as the I-17 corridor by
Wednesday. Winds generally light less than 15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Today, isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the higher
terrain in the eastern third of Arizona. By Tuesday afternoon
showers and thunderstorm chances begin to move westward along the
Mogollon Rim with continued chances over the mountains of eastern
Arizona. Winds southwest to west 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph each
afternoon, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Minimum
RH`s each afternoon ranging from 15% in the lower deserts to 30-40%
in the mountains. Turning warmer.

Wednesday through Friday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms
remain primarily over the higher terrain of the Rim and White
Mountains. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Winds
south to southwest 5-15 mph each day, light and variable or terrain
driven overnight.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff