544
FXUS65 KFGZ 212303
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
403 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms through the
weekend/first half of next week, primarily across the higher
terrain. Drier and warmer conditions may return by the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong area of high pressure continues to linger
over the Four Corners. Although the synoptic pattern would
typically bring an active monsoon day, early morning cloud cover
brought enough stabilization to keep things fairly quiet today. We
are still expecting isolated to scattered showers throughout the
afternoon and evening, primarily along the Mogollon Rim and
northward. But overall should be a downturn in activity compared
to yesterday.

For the weekend/early next week, the area of high pressure will
wobble around the Southwest, keeping daily chances for
showers/storms. Greatest coverage looks to be across the higher
terrain each afternoon/evening. Outside of daily precipitation
chances, daytime highs will remain above normal. In typical
monsoon fashion, some days will be more active than others, but
we`ll have a better idea on which days those will be as we move
through the period. For now, be sure to check the forecast prior
to enjoying outdoor activities, and be sure to have a way to
receive weather alerts.

Middle to late next week...model guidance suggests a few different
solutions, but we could see a brief drying/warming trend. There
could still be chances for showers/storms across the White
Mountains and eastern Rim, but widespread activity doesn`t look to
be the case as of now. In addition, there may need to be further
discussion on heat products for the lower elevations of the Grand
Canyon. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 22/00Z through Sunday 23/00Z...Mainly VFR,
with brief/localized MVFR in isolated showers and thunderstorms,
winding down by 03Z. Another round of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms after 18Z Saturday, continuing into early evening.
Daytime winds southwest to northwest at 5-15 kts, light and
variable overnight. Gusty/erratic winds up to 40 kts in stronger
storms.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/00Z through Tuesday 25/00Z...Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, highest coverage over the
higher terrain. Brief/localized MVFR and wind gusts to 40 kts in
stronger storms. Daytime winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts.
Light and variable or terrain driven winds overnight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Rest of today through Sunday...Look for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening
across northern Arizona with the main focus over and near the White
Mountains and along and to the north of the Mogollon Rim. Stronger
storms will bring hail, gusty and erratic winds, and localized heavy
rainfall. Away from storms, winds look to be southwest to northwest
5-15 mph each day, becoming variable in the evening and overnight.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, becoming more isolated on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Stronger storms will bring hail, gusty and
erratic winds, and localized heavy rainfall. Winds southwest to west
at 5-15 mph each day, with gusty and erratic winds possible near
storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Schank

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff