892
FXUS65 KFGZ 251631
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity will
slowly decrease and become more focused over eastern Arizona by
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large-scale outflow moved across the state and into
Nevada overnight, ensuring another moist day. 12Z KFGZ sounding is
the most unstable and moist so far, there is very little to suppress
convection and we expect an early start. This deep/unstable profile
has a touch more shear when compared to yesterday and the threat for
severe (hail) should not be overlooked. However, the primary threat
is still heavy rain and slow-moving storms, that may lead to Flash
Flooding.

Adding a wrinkle to an otherwise standard, diurnally forced
convective forecast, is a well-defined MCV over the I-10 between
Phoenix and Tucson. This feature is progged to move into Yavapai
County this evening, potentially prolonging convection later into
the night. These features don`t always pan out, especially if moving
into a worked-over airmass, but we will need to keep an eye on it.

Our ridge starts to get slightly suppressed and pushed southeastward
on Wednesday, in advance of an approaching, long-wave trough to our
north. This will not be enough to stop another active day, but you
may see activity starting to slide eastward, just a bit.

From Thursday through Saturday, the northern trough brings much
drier mid-level air to our area and the Monsoon moisture boundary
will be forced into southeastern Arizona. This will limit activity
to southern Apache County, for the most part. Moisture may return
heading into next week, but perhaps not as aggressive as what we
have seen for the last week.

No major updates planned this morning, perhaps we will tweak the
15Z-18Z PoPs a bit to reflect an earlier start, but that`s about it.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 25/12Z through Wednesday 26/12Z...SHRA/TSRA
possible 19Z-02Z, with some showers likely lingering into the
overnight. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty erratic winds possible
in and around TS. Otherwise, VFR conditions with W/SW winds 5-15
kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 26/12Z through Friday 28/12Z...Daily chances
for SHRA/TSRA continue. Winds W/SW 10-15 kts on Wednesday, becoming
SW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue. Winds will mainly be driven by outflows.
Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, hail, lightning, and
gusty, erratic winds. Min RHs ranging from 20 to 40 percent, with
good overnight recoveries.

Thursday through Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
again Thursday, but the emphasis shifts primarily to the Mogollon
Rim northeast and eastward. After Thursday, most of the central and
western zones become drier, warmer and breezy. Afternoon storm
chances continue for the eastern zones, but coverage becomes more
isolated. Expect southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30
mph, each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff