646
FXUS65 KFGZ 251733
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1033 AM MST Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and warming temperatures are expected
through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the White
Mountains each afternoon, with better chances setting in over
more of northern Arizona for showers near the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Arizona remains sandwiched between a trough
to the west and a strong ridge of high pressure to the east. Moisture
continues to stream northward into New Mexico, with some moisture
being able to sneak westward into eastern Arizona. As a result,
another round of high-based showers and thunderstorms is expected
across eastern Arizona later this afternoon. Dry, west/southwest
flow with the trough however results in moisture drastically drops
off across western and central Arizona, keeping dry conditions in
the forecast for most. Given the high-based nature of this
activity, little to no precipitation is expected, with gusty winds
being the only threat.

Thursday and Friday...The trough begins to weaken and lift, while at
the same time the high begins to shift further east. The moisture
pipeline into eastern Arizona begins to be cut off, leaving only a
slight chance for isolated high-based showers around the White
Mountains each afternoon. Temperatures look to gradually climb as
heights begin to recover in the wake of the trough.

Saturday through Tuesday...Heights begin to rise over the weekend
and into early next week as high pressure starts to build over the
southwest. Temperatures look to be on the rise once again as a
result, ushering in a return of more seasonable to slight above normal
temperatures. Some heat headlines may be needed for the lower
elevations of the Grand Canyon over the weekend as highs look to
exceed 110F by Sunday.

PWAT values do look to increase over the weekend, with some high-
based shower activity possible as early as Sunday over the higher
terrain. The vast majority of the area however looks to remain warm
and dry over the weekend. For the start of next week, moisture
continues to be advected northward, with chances for showers and
thunderstorms increasing each afternoon. If model guidance holds
true, the start of the monsoon looks to be upon us by the weekend of
July 4th.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 25/18Z through Thursday 26/18Z...VFR
conditions, isolated afternoon high based thunderstorms possible
over the White Mountains. Winds SW 10-15kts, gusts to 20kts
daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 26/18Z through Saturday 28/18Z...VFR
conditions, isolated afternoon high based thunderstorms over the
White Mountains. Winds SW 5-10kts, gusts 20kts daytime, light and
variable or terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Mainly dry conditions, with
outside of a slight chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms
near the White Mountains each afternoon. Southwest winds 10-15 mph
each afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around storms.

Friday through Sunday...Warming temperatures and dry conditions.
Slight chance for high-based showers and storms near the White
Mountains each afternoon, gusty winds will be possible in and around
storms. Daytime winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff