160
FXUS65 KFGZ 071836
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1136 AM MST Mon Sep 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Storm activity will be confined to far eastern
Arizona today before gradually spreading back westward through
the week. Temperatures will be close to normal through Labor Day,
warming to above normal by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday...Heights begin to rise over
Arizona as high pressure centered over the Mississippi River
Valley begins to retrograde back over the southwest. Gradually
warming temperatures are expected across northern Arizona as a
result, with highs around 5-10F above normal by the middle of the
week.

Moisture looks to remain trapped under the ridge, with PWATs
remaining around 0.75 to 1.00 inches across northern Arizona.
Therefore, at least isolated afternoon shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to remain a possibility over the coming days. Any
activity that does develop will be fairly minor, and isolated in
nature, as warming aloft will inhibit any substantial convective
development. The best chances for any activity look to mainly be
across the eastern Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains, and
potentially the Chuska Mountains. However, coverage should gradually
extend westward some through the week as the subsidence aloft
lessens.

Friday through Sunday...Later in the week, the details in the
forecast get a little fuzzy. The high over the southwest remains
fairly transient, once again moving back eastward and setting up
over New Mexico. At the same time, a strong trough looks to move
into the Pacific Northwest. Breezier, and cooler conditions look to
set in across northern Arizona over the weekend as the ridge loosens
it`s grip.

The tricky part here results from uncertainty in how far south the
trough may go. A further southward track into the Great Basin would
result in a day of active monsoonal conditions, before eventually
suppressing monsoonal moisture southward. If it were to track further
north across northern Rockies, the high looks to remain in a
favorable monsoonal pattern, thus keeping active conditions into
the weekend. Much of the GEFS members seem to favor keeping a more
active pattern in place, while the EPS and CMCE both seem to favor a
stronger influence from the trough.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 07/18Z through Tuesday 08/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, brief MVFR possible near heavier thunderstorms.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms near the White
Mountains and Eastern Mogollon Rim today between 18Z-03Z. Dry
elsewhere. Winds W-NW 10-20kts daytime, light and variable or
terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 08/18Z through Thursday 10/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, brief MVFR possible near heavier thunderstorms.
Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains each day. Winds variable 5-15kts
daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Warmer with temperatures
5-10 degrees above average. Expect low grade monsoon conditions
with afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances along the Mogollon
Rim and the mountains of eastern Arizona. Winds S-SW 5-15 mph
with gusts to 25 mph each afternoon, light and variable or terrain
driven overnight. Minimum RH`s each afternoon ranging from 15% in
the lower deserts to 30-40% in the mountains.

Thursday through Saturday...Low grade monsoon conditions continue
with afternoon showers and thunderstorms remaining primarily over
the higher terrain of the Rim and White Mountains. Daytime
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Winds S-SW 5-15 mph each
day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff