011
FXUS65 KFGZ 032054
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
155 PM MST Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue through much of the
week. Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms return
near the middle of the week, mainly over the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge over south-central Arizona will wobble
a bit east and west over the next several days, then will wobble a
bit north and northwest late in the forecast period.

This high pressure cell is already fairly strong, but it will also
strengthen through about Thursday or Friday. This is not a good
thing on a few levels, one being the heat that will rise even more
through the week and two, strong high pressure aloft can stop
convection in it`s tracks.

More about these two topics, starting with the location and strength
of the high. The high is currently in a poor position for moisture
transport into Arizona. As it wobbles eastward early next week, it
may have a day or two where moisture can stream northward. This may
be in the form of higher dew points, but that might not translate
into rainfall, due to the warmer temperatures aloft can that hamper
convection. Then, as it wobbles back westward, the moisture sources
are blocked once again.

As far as temperatures, we get into some critical heat indices by
mid-week as the high strengthens. However, if we do tap into some
deeper moisture, these temperatures may not be realized. We will
wait on any additional heat headlines at this time, until these
scenarios become more clear.

As far as Fire Weather and wind, there will be some near critical
values in western and northern Coconino County Monday afternoon and
perhaps Tuesday. This is due to another s/wv trough in the northern
Great Basin, riding over the top of the ridge. When the ridge starts
to reposition later in the week, winds come down a bit. Looking at
joint probabilities in DESI for winds and RH, we will hold off on a
zone based RFW tomorrow, but a local (fire site based) RFW will go
out for the fire crews that are in place.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 03/18Z through Monday 04/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, outside of occasional MVFR near and north of a KGCN-KPGA
line in HZ/FU. Winds W/SW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts before 03Z,
then becoming VRB 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 04/18Z through Wednesday 06/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, outside of occasional MVFR near and north of a KGCN-KPGA
line in HZ/FU. Daytime winds SW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on
Monday, subsiding to 10-15 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Hot, dry, and breezy
conditions, leading to near-critial fire weather conditions each
day. Winds southwest 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph, along with
minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Hot and mainly dry conditions continue.
Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly across
the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Breezy southwest winds 10-20
mph each afternoon, along with minimum afternoon RH near 10-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Tuesday for Azz006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff