396
FXUS65 KFGZ 120901
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
201 AM MST Sat Sep 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Activity tapers off a bit today although the higher
terrain may see some scattered showers or storms this afternoon.
Things begin to ramp back up starting Sunday with daily chances
of storms becoming more likely area wide. This pattern will
continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today should be a bit of a down day for convection
as the activity from Friday has worked over most of the atmosphere.
Shortwave that was the trigger for this event is also departing
to the east, but still enough left over moisture remains that
daytime heating and terrain may trigger a few isolated to
scattered afternoon storms over the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. Isolated areas of flash flooding remain possible as
heavy rain could fall over areas saturated from yesterday`s
activity.

The story for this week will be a series of shortwaves moving
through the westerlies interacting with monsoon moisture over the
state with each wave setting off more showers and thunderstorms.
The next such shortwave will arrive on Sunday which will lead to
an uptick in storm chances area wide. Each shortwave brings extra
shear to the thunderstorm ingredients which could lead to some
extra strength, organization and even a few severe cells with
damaging winds and larger hail. Will have to evaluate each wave as
it passes for that potential. Activity may also vary from one
afternoon to the next depending on how much the atmosphere gets
worked over from the previous day. At this time this pattern looks
to hold true for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 12/06Z through Sunday 13/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, MVFR possible near +TS. SCT SHRA/TSRA continues south
of a KPRC-KJTC line. Slight chance for storms to continue across
Yavapai county through early tomorrow morning. Stronger storms
may contain hail and gusty/erratic winds to 40 kts. ISOLD-SCT
storms return mostly along the higher terrain after 18Z. Winds
light and VRB or terrain driven overnight, then SW-W 10-20 kts
after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 13/06Z through Tuesday 15/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, brief MVFR near heavier thunderstorms. ISOLD-SCT
storms each day between 18Z and 03Z. Winds SW-W 10-20kts daytime,
light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Today will be a down day as far
as showers and thunderstorms are concerned for most of the area, the
exception being over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains where a
few scattered afternoon thunderstorms are still possible. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will pick up again area wide on Sunday as
another disturbance moves into the area. Winds S-SW 10-20 mph each
afternoon and daytime temperatures remaining around normal.

Monday through Wednesday...Over the next few days expect daily
shower and thunderstorm activity. The amount of activity and
coverage may be dependent on how much the atmosphere gets worked
over from the previous days storms. Winds S-SW 10-20 mph, with gusts
to near 25 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff