449
FXUS65 KFGZ 220915
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
215 AM MST Sat Aug 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
to continue through early next week, primarily across the higher
terrain. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected to develop
as a strong high pressure system builds over Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft centered over northeast New
Mexico and southeast Colorado early Saturday morning will slowly
drift southward through Tuesday then westward toward the end of
next week becoming centered over the southern portions of
Arizona/New Mexico border. The net result will be daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms across northern Arizona through
Monday or Tuesday then diminished chances as the position of the
high will allow for a bit drier air and a more stable air mass to
develop over northern Arizona.

For Today...Monsoon moisture will remain in place. As a result,
we`re looking at another round of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms with a bit more activity than seen on Friday.
Southeast flow aloft will continue to favor shower and
thunderstorm development midday over the Grand Canyon, Mogollon
Rim, White mountains and Chuska Mountains with activity then
tending to move north and east from that point. However, deep
moisture still resides to the south of the Mogollon Rim and
models are showing and increase activity even for Yavapai and Gila
Counties. Otherwise, light winds and hot.

From Sunday into Tuesday...Monsoon moisture remains in place with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The flow aloft will
remain southerly with the bulk of activity expected from the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Otherwise, with the
high remaining over the southwest United States, light winds will
continue along with above normal temperatures.

Looking from Wednesday onward...Models appear to be trending
toward high pressure aloft becoming centered over southeast
Arizona/southwest New Mexico. This solution would bring in a more
southwest to west flow aloft which would deliver a drier air mass
as well as a capping layer aloft under the influence of weak
subsidence. In addition, daytime temperatures will be on the
increase, likely eventually rising to the upper 80 to lower 90s
in the mountains to 105 to 110 degrees at elevations below 4000
feet. Yeah a bummer, but its still summer after all.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 22/06Z through Sunday 23/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated -SHRA KINW-KSJN through around 08Z, otherwise
mainly dry overnight. Another round of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms after 18Z Saturday, continuing into early evening.
Daytime winds southwest to northwest at 5-15 kts, light and
variable overnight. Localized/brief MVFR and gusty/erratic winds
up to 40 kts in stronger storms.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/06Z through Tuesday 25/06Z...Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, highest coverage over the
higher terrain. Brief/localized MVFR and wind gusts to 40 kts in
stronger storms. Daytime winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts.
Light and variable or terrain driven winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Look for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening across northern
Arizona with main focus from the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim
northward. Stronger storms will produce gusty and erratic winds and
localized heavy rainfall. Away from storms, winds look to be
southwest to northwest 5-15 mph each day, becoming variable in the
evening and overnight.

Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue on Monday, becoming more isolated on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Stronger storms will bring gusty and erratic winds and brief
downpours. Otherwise, warming daytime temperatures with southwest to
west winds at 5-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff