772
FXUS65 KFGZ 291107
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
407 AM MST Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Slight chances for precipitation will stick around
for today, before moisture becomes limited over the White
Mountains and eastern Rim this weekend. High pressure looks to
build over the Southwest next week, which could bring back
additional showers/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Light showers are noted across portions of northern
Arizona this evening and will likely continue through the
overnight and early morning hours. This last wave of moisture is
from remnants of Tropical Storm Juliette. We could see a few left
over showers/storms this afternoon, but activity will be much
quieter than we`ve seen over the last several days.

Over the weekend, moisture will continue to become limited as an
area of high pressure generally flattens across the region. There
will still be slight chances for showers/storms across the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, but elsewhere will be
dry. During this timeframe we will also see temperatures trend
upward a few degrees, landing near normal for this time of year.

Moving toward the Labor Day holiday and next week, moisture
gradually should expand westward due to high pressure beginning to
build across the Southwest. Model guidance does not suggest this
ridge centering itself over the Four Corners, but we`ll still be
under a synoptic flow that should bring sufficient moisture back
to northern Arizona. For now, our forecast (which is heavily
following the NBM) shows precipitation chances greatest along and
south of a Fredonia- Window Rock line by mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 29/12Z through Saturday 30/12Z...VFR conditions
expected through much of the period, but brief MVFR conditions
possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Isolated storms and showers
expected through at least 14Z, with additional activity resuming
after 18Z. Gusty/erratic winds possible near storms. Otherwise,
look for westerly winds 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 30/12Z through Monday 01/12Z...VFR conditions
expected through the period. -SHRA/-TSRA possible along and south
of a KSOW- KSJN line Saturday afternoon, before expanding westward
on Sunday to a KFLG-KSJN and south line. Outside of gusty/erratic
winds near storms, look for variable winds 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected today, becoming more isolated over the
White Mountains and eastern Rim on Saturday. Temperatures will also
warm up through the weekend. Look for minimum RH values between 20-
40% on Friday, dipping to 15-35% on Saturday. Expect westerly winds
5-15 mph this afternoon, becoming more variable on Saturday. Winds
near showers/storms could be gusty/erratic.

Sunday through Tuesday...Precipitation chances forecast each day,
initially over the White Mountains and eastern Rim and expanding
westward through the beginning of the week. Minimum RH values
generally between 10-20% north of I-40, and between 15-30% south of
I-40. Outside of storm driven winds, expect variable winds 5-15
mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff