905
FXUS65 KFGZ 241618
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
918 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions
will continue through the week. Slightly cooler temperatures and
breezy winds arrive towards the end of the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...High pressure remains situated over much of Arizona,
keeping warm and dry conditions in the forecast today.

Minor updates this morning to increase overnight northeasterly
winds and smoke/haze near Pine. Otherwise, the previous forecast
remains on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /416 AM MST/...The weather story of the week
will be the dominant high pressure that builds across the desert
southwest. This will bring warming temperatures and dry conditions
to the region. Daytime highs will be around 5-15 degrees above
normal through the weekend, though some slight cooling is expected
by the weekend. Winds will generally be light through the period
with easterly winds today before a shift to the south to southwest
on Wednesday. Models are trying to show a shortwave trough moving
into California over the weekend but the high might be just a bit
too strong to allow for it to have much influence across our
forecast area. If anything, we may see the winds increase some
late in the weekend as there is little to no moisture available
for us to tap into which will keep us dry.

Item of note: the warm temperatures are more reminiscent of July
temperatures over what we expect for late September. As a result, we
may near or even break some of the daily maximum temperature records
so definitely something to keep an eye on, especially as we head
into the later part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 24/18Z through Wednesday 25/18Z...VFR
conditions with winds E/NE 5-10 kts with occasional gusts 15-20
kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 25/18Z through Friday 27/18Z...VFR conditions
with S/SE winds around 10 kts on Wednesday, becoming VRB 5-10 kts
on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Above normal temperatures and
dry conditions will continue each day. Minimum RH values will range
between 10-25%. Expect winds varying in direction 5-15 mph this
afternoon, becoming more southerly on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Afternoon highs 5-15 degrees above
normal will continue through the weekend. Winds will generally be
light and variable each day, along with minimum RH values between 10-
25%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys/Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff