107
FXUS65 KFGZ 132307
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
407 PM MST Sun Sep 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...An active pattern will remain in place through the end
of the week. Greatest coverage for showers/storms look to be
during the afternoon/early evening hours each day, but we cannot
rule out the potential for overnight activity. Otherwise, expect
seasonable daytime highs and breezy southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Storms have fired up across portions of our CWA,
especially in Yavapai and Coconino Counties where model guidance
suggests the strongest instability is. Sufficient moisture remains
in place across the state as shown in our above normal PW values.
Another shortwave is the main culprit for today`s activity. The
sounding from this afternoon does show a decent cap, so storms
aren`t very severe in nature, but that could change through the
rest of the afternoon. For now, training storms leading to flash
flooding seems to be the main concern.

A broad trough across the West Coast will lead way to a handful of
embedded shortwaves pushing through the state this week. This will
keep us in a rather activity pattern each day. Although guidance
suggests convection being rather widespread/heaviest during the
afternoon periods, overnight activity could quickly downplay how
each day turns out. Between the atmosphere being worked over and
likelihood of debris clouds, we could see quieter days than
models are depicting at this time. As always, we`ll do our best,
but in environments like this taking it day-by-day is usually the
best plan of attack.

By next weekend overall precipitation chances look to diminish,
but a few isolated showers across eastern Arizona may still
remain in the forecast. More details on that later.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 14/00Z through Tuesday 15/00Z...Expect patchy
ceilings 4-7 kft AGL over the next 24 hours. Mainly isolated
SHRA/TSRA overnight and scattered-numerous SHRA/TSRA between
18Z-00Z producing occasional MVFR conditions. Daytime winds
outside of gusty thunderstorms/outflows, south to southwest at
10-20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 15/00Z through Thursday 17/00Z...Expect patchy
ceilings at 5-8 kft AGL. Mainly scattered-numerous SHRA/TSRA
between 18Z-03Z with isolated SHRA/TSRA otherwise. Occasional
MVFR conditions anticipated. Daytime winds outside of
thunderstorms/outflows, south to southwest at 10-20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist into Sunday evening, especially over
Yavapai and Coconino counties. Gradual clearing overnight, but
redevelopment may occur early Monday morning as outflows approach
from the south. The chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
Monday and Tuesday, but the focus shifts eastward, due to a trough
passing to our north. Mainly daytime south through southwest winds
from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph, can be expected each day.
Temperatures will remain right around normal.

Wednesday through Friday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue, possibly becoming more widespread during this time frame.
Daytime southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff